Speculation of SNB’s Move Keeps Swissie Trade Brisk

(eToro Blog) Swiss bulls stand at the ready for an SNB intervention. Speculation is rife that it will come soon and recent data pointing to a slowing down of the Swiss economy may hasten the decision. Yesterday, it was reported that the pace of Swiss manufacturing slowed in January, even as the frail Eurozone showed an unexpected improvement. Today’s economic data shows a decline in Swiss exports in December, with real exports falling by 1.6%, primarily attributed to waning demand as well as a still-too-strong Swiss Franc.

Analysts point out that the Swissie is still 30% stronger now than before the 2008 financial crisis, and the peg set at 1.20 has not helped to the extent envisioned. OpenBook’s traders of the Swissie have been readying their positions in anticipation of an intervention. Openbook trader Baldi62, from Switzerland, allocates about 14% of his portfolio to the EUR/CHF pair, and has been opening long positions since yesterday in anticipation of an SNB move. This trader is monitoring the action closely and is quick to close out a trade that appears to be tanking while letting the profits run on the others. The last three profitable trades averaged a 69% gain.

OpenBook guru santosh has also gone long on the EUR/CHF pair with several open trades, as well as several more on USD/CHF; a new peg on the Euro-Swiss will inevitably affect the Swissie’s other crosses as well. Not to miss out on the opportunity guru pyruss also has several open longs.

Traders on the OpenBook are almost completely bullish, with a ratio of 16 longs to 1 short; the entire population of EUR/CHF traders appears to be expecting an intervention and are wary of being caught short. The question of when the SNB will intervene is on every trader’s mind, but given that this is a new SNB, no longer under the helm of Philipp Hildebrand, it’s possible that this waiting game is being played under different rules.

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