Andrius Meskonis @GrizzlyDevil: "The cleanest tell on the..."

Lithuania

The cleanest tell on the feed this week has nothing to do with a leader quote. The US oil majors $XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corp) and $CVX.US (Chevron) are sitting roughly where they were before the current Iran cycle started, while $OIL is trading meaningfully higher than it was on the same date. Those two facts, side by side, are unusual and asymmetric, and worth saying out loud. The natural question is what my portfolio did about it. The honest answer is: it did what it did three weeks ago, which is also what it did six weeks ago. Three weeks ago, on this same feed, I posted a number. My oil sleeve was at 5.31% of total equity against a 5% target. Today the number is still around 5.31%. The target is still 5.00%. The gap is still +0.31 percentage points, still inside my no-action band. Zero alerts have fired this week. It has been about 3 months since I last executed a trade in this portfolio. I want to be honest about why I am posting that same 5.31% twice. It is not because the number is impressive. It is because the rule is the number staying inside a band, not the number moving. Three weeks of louder headlines, the same oil sleeve, the same no-action band, zero forced trades. That is what "rules survive headlines" actually looks like in practice. It is much less cinematic than the feed wants it to be, and I think that is the point. A small open one for you. When was the last time you sat on a position for three uneventful weeks while the feed got louder around it — and what specifically was the thing that kept you from touching it? Not investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results. $OIL $XOM $CVX.US $BTC EXP H23 P19

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.