{"id":1270548,"date":"2026-06-04T04:28:14","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T01:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/?p=1270548"},"modified":"2026-06-04T04:28:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T01:28:14","slug":"coles-share-price-asx-col-should-you-buy-in-2026-etoro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/au\/news-and-analysis\/stocks\/coles-share-price-asx-col-should-you-buy-in-2026-etoro\/","title":{"rendered":"Coles Share Price (ASX: COL) Should You Buy in 2026? | eToro"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Investing in supermarkets has never exactly been the most exciting. But Coles CEO Leah Weckert is on a mission to turn that boring supermarket on your corner into one of the more interesting AI adoption stories on the ASX. Robots picking your online order, computer vision identifying your bananas at self-checkout, and within five years, she expects roughly 30% of online orders to be placed by an AI agent rather than a human.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although the talk of AI and agents is exciting, its core business is selling groceries, and that\u2019s got it into a little bit of trouble as of late. Coles is down around 7.5% over the past month after the Federal Court&#8217;s ruling against it in the ACCC &#8220;Down Down&#8221; pricing case, and the stock has been under pressure for the better part of six months. Throw in the conflict in the Middle East disrupting supply chains and it doesn\u2019t paint the prettiest picture for Coles to close out this financial year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But with three RBA rate hikes so far this year and consumer sentiment tumbling, more and more consumers are turning back to their trusty supermarket rather than a fancy restaurant. So, will more customers returning to staples and its AI ambitions lift shares or will ACCC investigations and rising costs keep shares under pressure?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let&#8217;s find out.<\/span><b><\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Coles has been quietly building an internal AI team for a decade, and with computer vision already cutting theft across its store network and AI-driven robots picking online orders, the productivity gains are only just starting to show up in the numbers.\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>Online grocery sales were just 3% of sales in 2019. It&#8217;s 14% today, and Coles is targeting 20% to 30% as its long-run rate. Its two new automated fulfilment centres already run the equivalent capacity of 40 new stores.\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\"><b>According to Bloomberg\u2019s Analyst Recommendations, Coles has 12 buy ratings, 5 holds, and 0 sells, with an average price target of AUD$23.70. signalling a potential upside of 10% from its last closing price as of 03\/05\/26. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><a class=\"e-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/etoro.tw\/3Sj185w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">View Coles Shares<\/a><\/h2>\n<h2><strong>The Basics<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coles Group is Australia\u2019s second-largest supermarket operator, spun out of Wesfarmers and listed on the ASX in 2018. The business runs hundreds of supermarkets across the country under the Coles brand and is the third-largest liquor retailer in Australia through Liquorland, First Choice and Vintage Cellars. Most weekly grocery shops in this country happen at either a Coles or a Woolworths, and together the two businesses capture roughly $2 in every $3 spent at Australian supermarkets. But should they capture a slice of your investing budget too?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The way Coles makes money is simple to understand but harder to execute. Supermarkets is the engine room, doing AUD$21.4 billion in revenue in the first half of FY26 across groceries, fresh food, deli, bakery, and a growing range of Coles-branded private label products. Liquor makes up a smaller piece of the pie at AUD$1.9 billion. The margins are thin, but the volumes are enormous, and that\u2019s how a supermarket business turns millions of small transactions into billions in profit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But Coles is more than just bread and milk. Right now, it is building a meaningful retail media business, essentially charging suppliers to advertise on its digital platforms, app and in-store screens. That\u2019s high-margin revenue that drops almost straight to the bottom line. It owns the Flybuys loyalty programme, which gives it deep data on 18 million daily transactions and enables it to personalise offers, sharpen pricing, and feed its retail engine. On top of that, it has spent years investing in automated Customer Fulfilment Centres and large robotic warehouses, which are now the backbone of its fast-growing e-commerce business.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In simple terms, Coles sells you your groceries, your bottle of wine, and increasingly delivers them to your door using robots. It\u2019s a much more interesting business than most investors give it credit for. Shares are down 1.5% so far this year, but up 60% with dividends included over the last 5 years.*\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Fun Fact:<\/b><b><i> GLP-1 drug penetration in Australia is just 2%, versus 12% in the US. Coles is already repositioning its health range, including high-protein yoghurt and cottage cheese, ahead of what\u2019s coming.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Competitor Diagnosis\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coles operates in one of the most competitive grocery markets in the world and CEO Leah Weckert said recently that this is currently the most competitive environment? she\u2019s ever seen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Woolworths is the larger of the two, regaining some ground after a disastrous few years. Aldi sits in third spot with the lowest prices and a lean cost base, but a recent slowdown in sales for the German giant suggests Coles and Woolworths have stepped up on pricing. Metcash, which supplies IGA and Foodland, runs the independent channel and continues to lose share to the majors. Costco is a niche player without the store footprint to compete on weekly shops. Amazon has also entered the fold more recently, partnering with Harris Farm to grow its \u2018Basics\u2019 offering.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For both Coles and Woolworths, having that duopoly comes with plenty of scrutiny. The most pressing near-term risk is the Federal Court&#8217;s ruling against Coles in the ACCC &#8220;Down Down&#8221; pricing case. The Court found that Coles misled shoppers by temporarily raising prices on 245 products before placing them on promotion, making the discount illusory. Penalties are yet to be determined and could be substantial. It&#8217;s a reputational hit at exactly the moment Coles is trying to position itself as a price leader for cost-of-living-strapped customers, and with Woolworths facing similar ACCC proceedings, the regulatory heat on Australia&#8217;s supermarket duopoly shows no signs of cooling.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coles and Woolworths have been locked in a pricing war to win over cost-of-living-pressured consumers, and with margins already razor thin, there isn&#8217;t much room to absorb what&#8217;s coming. Supplier cost pressures from the Middle East conflict are accelerating, with fuel, freight and packaging costs all moving higher. A separate Federal Court ruling on underpaid staff could also weigh on earnings. Grocery retailing was never a high-margin business, and when costs rise faster than they can be passed on, it shows up quickly in the bottom line.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1270575\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1270575\" style=\"width: 1029px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1270575\" src=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-26.png\" alt=\"Australian super market share\" width=\"1029\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-26.png 1029w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-26-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-26-1024x622.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-26-768x466.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1029px) 100vw, 1029px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1270575\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">* Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><strong>Financial Health Check<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coles delivered a solid first half of FY26. Total revenue came in at $23.6 billion, EBIT at $1.23 billion, and net profit of $511 million. The interim dividend was 41 cents per share, continuing a steady dividend growth story, from around 61 cents in 2021 to 73 cents today, a yield of around 3.4%. Its net profit margin is 2.2%, consistent with global grocery peers and a useful reminder of just how thin margins are in this industry. Coles makes 2.2 cents on every dollar that goes through the till, which is precisely why a 12-month ACCC inquiry with full access to margin, product and property data could not find evidence of excessive pricing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Its Q3 sales update in early May kept the momentum going but flagged a tougher second half. Total sales rose 3.1% to AUD$10.7 billion. The Australian consumer is still putting food on the table, even with rates higher and household budgets squeezed. But Leah Weckert flagged that supplier price hike requests are now running at COVID-era levels, with some categories even higher, and the conflict in the Middle East is starting to push fuel, freight and packaging costs higher across the board. Coles will absorb costs where it can, but eventually the pressure has to be passed on or margins have to give. Liquor is where the consumer squeeze is showing up most clearly, with overall liquor sales down 3.9% in Q3.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cash generation is strong. Operating cash flow was $1.01 billion in H1 FY26, with free cash flow of $302 million after capex of $706 million. The bulk of that capex is going into the automated fulfilment centre rollout and store renewals, which is why free cash flow looks compressed right now.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1270549\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1270549\" style=\"width: 1023px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1270549\" src=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-27.png\" alt=\"Coles fiscal year revenue AID billions \" width=\"1023\" height=\"619\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-27.png 1023w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-27-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/unnamed-27-768x465.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1023px) 100vw, 1023px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1270549\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">*Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><strong>The AI and e-commerce story<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">E-commerce sales grew 24.8% in Q3 and have been growing continuously. Online was 3% of grocery sales in 2019; it\u2019s 14% today. Coles is now openly targeting 20% to 30% of grocery sales through the online channel. It took two decades to get to 3%, and just five years to go from 3% to 14%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Its Customer Fulfilment Centres (CFCs) are the engine behind this. Coles has built two automated facilities with the equivalent capacity of 40 new stores, run by several hundred AI-driven robots picking online orders. Weckert openly described them as one of the most scrutinised investment decisions Coles has ever made, with years of scepticism from analysts after the initial announcement. The conviction is now paying off, with measurable improvements in availability, freshness on fresh produce, and a much wider range online.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The agentic commerce angle is the one that should make investors sit up. Within five years, roughly 30% of online orders are expected to be placed by an AI agent rather than a human. The competition is no longer just about who has the better in-store shelf real estate or the brighter promotional sign. It\u2019s about who has the better data, the better loyalty programme and the better digital communication to a buying agent making a decision in milliseconds. Coles has flybuys, 18 million daily transactions and 20,000 customer surveys reviewed every Monday morning.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Computer vision is already running across the store network for produce identification at self-checkout and for theft detection, which Weckert flagged as one of the clearest ROI examples in the business. Coles also has a decade-long internal AI team working on location planning, rostering and loss prevention.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Buy, Hold or Sell?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Coles isn&#8217;t going to be the next Nvidia. But in a market obsessed with AI multibaggers, there&#8217;s a quiet case to be made for the business that puts food on every Australian&#8217;s table. It is one of the most resilient businesses on the ASX, selling something Australians will never stop buying, with a growing digital engine underneath that some investors might not appreciate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s currently trading at 22x forward earnings, less than Woolworths\u2019 26x. But, that\u2019s pricing in some of the challenges including the ACCC investigation, the Liquor business being a drag and the second half of the year setting up to be tougher than the first. But Coles has navigated cost pressures before, and with consumers eating out less and shopping at home more, the volume tailwind is firmly in its favour.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Bloomberg\u2019s Analyst Recommendations<\/span><b>, Coles has 12 buy ratings, 5 holds, and 0 sells, with an average price target of AUD$23.70 signalling a potential upside of 10% from its last closing price as of 03\/05\/26. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For a business growing e-commerce at nearly 25%, building a high-margin retail media business, and deploying AI across its entire operations, Coles is quietly building something that looks a lot more interesting than a supermarket.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><a class=\"e-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/etoro.tw\/3Sj185w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">View Coles Shares<\/a><\/h2>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">*Data Accurate as of 05\/06\/2026<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This communication is general information and education purposes only and should not be taken as financial product advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial product. It has been prepared without taking your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Any references to past performance and future indications are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. <\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Your capital is at risk<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">eToro Service ARSN 637 489 466 operated by eToro Asset Management Limited ABN 51 122 005 396 AFSL 319738 and promoted by eToro AUS Capital Limited ACN 612 791 803 AFSL 491139. Investing in shares via a managed investment scheme does not result in direct ownership of the underlying assets. The scheme has legal ownership, the investor has beneficial ownership, i.e. the shares are held on your behalf. As the scheme has legal ownership, you have no rights in the securities, including voting rights. Shares are non-transferable. Your capital is at risk. Refer to the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination (PDS and TMD) before transacting. See full disclaimer.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investing in supermarkets has never exactly been the most exciting. But Coles CEO Leah Weckert is on a mission to turn that boring supermarket on your corner into one of the more interesting AI adoption stories on the ASX. Robots picking your online order, computer vision identifying your bananas at self-checkout, and within five years,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":118,"featured_media":1270601,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3172,3173],"tags":[],"asset_type":[],"class_list":["post-1270548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","category-stocks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<title>Coles Share Price (ASX: COL) Should You Buy in 2026? | eToro - eToro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coles share price is down but analyst targets point to 10% upside. 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