🟢 Is the "Inflation Monster" Finally Dead? Truflation vs. BLS
The latest data from Truflation is sending a massive signal to the markets ahead of the mid-February CPI print.
While the last official BLS reported rate stands at 2.70%, Truflation’s real-time index has cratered to just 0.95% (as of Feb 2, 2026). This isn't just a small gap—it’s a Grand Canyon-sized divergence that suggests the "official" numbers might be lagging reality by a mile.
🟢 Why this matters for the mid-Feb CPI print:
The 45-Day Lead: Historically, Truflation’s daily tracking (which uses 15M+ data points) tends to lead the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data by about 30–45 days. If this trend holds, the cooling we see on this chart right now is a "sneak peek" at the disinflation that should start appearing in official government reports this month.
The "Under 1%" Milestone: For the first time in years, a major aggregate index is showing US inflation below 1%. While the BLS often stays "sticky" due to how they calculate housing (Owner’s Equivalent Rent), the Truflation data suggests that on-the-ground prices for goods and services are essentially flatlining or even entering deflationary territory in some sectors.
Market Shock Potential: Wall Street consensus for the February 11th release is currently hovering around 2.7%. If the BLS prints anything significantly lower (closer to Truflation's sub-1% reality), it could trigger a massive repricing of interest rate expectations.
🟢 The Bottom Line: The "official" data says we are still fighting to get to 2%. Truflation says we’ve already cleared it and are heading toward zero. If the February CPI print begins to close this gap, expect a volatile reaction in the bond and stock markets as the "higher for longer" narrative potentially collapses.
Which do you trust more:
The government's monthly survey or 15 million daily data points? I know which way I'm tilting but I'm paying very close attention to all these data points. At this point.... Anything is possible in the markets. 😅
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@JodySlaney with CISI Lvl 3 Wealth & Investment Management
🟢 Disclaimer:
The views expressed above are my personal opinion and do not constitute investment or financial advice. Please remember that your capital is at risk, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
$NSDQ100$SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF)... Show More
Although the government CPI data has serious credibility issues (particularly as the orange one doesn’t like bad numbers)…..so does this truflation data. There’s lots of questi9ns anbout the validity of it. Anecdotally, if you listen to various Americans talking about the costs of daily life there,... Show More
Great insight, Jody ... the divergence between the BLS at 2.7% and Truflation at 0.95% is getting hard to ignore ...
When indicators drift this far apart, it’s usually not the market playing games.
If Truflation’s lead holds, disinflation is already underway, and the next CPI prints might finally start... Show More
It seems to me that it's finally receding after many years, which is optimistic. But we have to see the next reading on February 11th. At the end of this year it could be possible to see almos 2% at the current tendency ... Show More
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