{"id":721086,"date":"2023-09-28T18:56:04","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T15:56:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/investing\/economic-cycle\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T14:42:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T12:42:56","slug":"economic-cycle","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus: akciov\u00e9 sektory, faktory"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Je sice pravdou, \u017ee v\u00fdkonnost akcie v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje sama spole\u010dnost, kter\u00e1 je vyd\u00e1v\u00e1, ale jsou zde i dal\u0161\u00ed, z\u00e1sadn\u00ed faktory, kter\u00e9 management dan\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti ovlivnit nem\u016f\u017ee. A jejich vliv na ceny akci\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt enormn\u00ed. Mezi jeden z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch pat\u0159\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus, kter\u00e9mu se budeme v\u011bnovat v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus<\/strong> je p\u0159irozenou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed ekonomiky<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 nevyhnuteln\u011b ovliv\u0148uje r\u016fst a pokles cen r\u016fzn\u00fdch aktiv. Tento cyklus z\u00e1rove\u0148 ovliv\u0148uje makroekonomick\u00e9 faktory, jako je inflace, \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry, nezam\u011bstnanost apod.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b zde vstupuj\u00ed do hry r\u016fzn\u00e9 instituce, jako jsou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky<\/strong>. Ty se sna\u017e\u00ed ekonomiku stabilizovat<\/a>, \u010deho\u017e se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm r\u016fzn\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 jsou zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za m\u011bnovou politiku st\u00e1tu. Nezanedbateln\u00fd vliv maj\u00ed i vl\u00e1dy jednotliv\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ur\u010dit\u00fdm vod\u00edtkem pro n\u00e1s, jako investory a obchodn\u00edky, mohou b\u00fdt historick\u00e1 data<\/strong>. S jejich pomoc\u00ed m\u016f\u017eeme analyzovat d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed situace, prozkoumat vliv ud\u00e1lost\u00ed na jednotliv\u00e9 sektory a zjistit, jak\u00e9 faktory spole\u010dnostem pomohly, nebo naopak u\u0161kodily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pokud v\u011bnujete dostatek \u010dasu zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f mezi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi odv\u011btv\u00edmi, trhy a aktivy, m\u016f\u017eete si p\u0159ipravit vlastn\u00ed portfolio, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1m pom\u016f\u017ee dos\u00e1hnout <\/strong>finan\u010dn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f<\/strong><\/a> i v nejist\u00fdch \u010dasech,<\/strong> a vyu\u017e\u00edt hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus pro zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dodate\u010dn\u00fdch zisk\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Jak se vyv\u00edjej\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 sektory v pr\u016fb\u011bhu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Poj\u010fme si nejprve \u0159\u00edct, co je to hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus. Jako hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus ozna\u010dujeme kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fdkonnosti.<\/strong> Prob\u00edh\u00e1 ve \u010dty\u0159ech f\u00e1z\u00edch: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Recese (dno): <\/strong>obdob\u00ed, kdy je ekonomick\u00e1 aktivita na minimu, jedn\u00e1 se o nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed bod dan\u00e9ho cyklu, kdy jsou ceny nejn\u00ed\u017ee;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Expanze (r\u016fst): <\/strong>obdob\u00ed po za\u017eehn\u00e1n\u00ed krize. Zde se za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 ekonomika vyrovn\u00e1vat a ceny rostou;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Konjunktura (vrchol): <\/strong>nejp\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed pro ekonomiku a jej\u00ed r\u016fst z cel\u00e9ho cyklu, ceny se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed na maximech;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Deprese (pokles): <\/strong>za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed se projevovat nerovnov\u00e1hy na trhu, ekonomika za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 zpomalovat, v\u00fdkonnost kles\u00e1 a ceny se propadaj\u00ed.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Tyto \u010dty\u0159i f\u00e1ze hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu jsou t\u011bsn\u011b spjaty s konkr\u00e9tn\u00edmi tr\u017en\u00edmi podm\u00ednkami<\/strong>. Mezi ty pat\u0159\u00ed t\u0159eba v\u00fddaje spot\u0159ebitel\u016f<\/a>, \u00farove\u0148 nezam\u011bstnanosti, mno\u017estv\u00ed vyp\u016fj\u010dovan\u00fdch pen\u011bz atd. V ka\u017ed\u00e9 f\u00e1zi se tyto podm\u00ednky vyv\u00edj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem.<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Pochopen\u00ed t\u011bchto souvislost\u00ed na trhu je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro investory<\/strong>, ale i pro veden\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed. R\u016fzn\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed toti\u017e reaguj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem a jednotliv\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti by m\u011bly reagovat adekv\u00e1tn\u011b, aby si zajistily co nejlep\u0161\u00ed pozici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/span>
    \n

    Tip: <\/strong>Sledujte aktuality z trh\u016f<\/a>, aby v\u00e1m neunikla z\u00e1sadn\u00ed ozn\u00e1men\u00ed od p\u0159edstavitel\u016f spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1te ve sv\u00e9m portfoliu. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    V r\u00e1mci investi\u010dn\u00edho rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee znalost t\u011bchto vztah\u016f umo\u017enit identifikovat p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti v sektorech, u kter\u00fdch se d\u00e1 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat r\u016fst<\/strong>, \u010d\u00edm\u017e si m\u016f\u017eete zajistit vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Defenzivn\u00ed sektory<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Defenzivn\u00ed akcie<\/a> m\u016f\u017eete zn\u00e1t i pod n\u00e1zvem anticyklick\u00e9 akcie. Jak tento n\u00e1zev napov\u00edd\u00e1, jdou \u201eproti cyklu\u201c. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v obdob\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu sice nepat\u0159\u00ed mezi hv\u011bzdy trh\u016f, ale o to v\u00edce vyniknou, kdy\u017e se situace obr\u00e1t\u00ed.<\/strong> V obdob\u00ed propadu tyto akcie obvykle svoji hodnotu dr\u017e\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b dokonce zvy\u0161uj\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Obvykle se jedn\u00e1 o velk\u00e9, zaveden\u00e9 blue-chip<\/strong><\/a> spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 jejich postaven\u00ed na trhu ochra\u0148uje p\u0159ed dopady kriz\u00ed.<\/strong> P\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o spole\u010dnosti ze sektor\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou pot\u0159ebn\u00e9, i kdy\u017e spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 omezuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 v\u00fddaje. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    P\u0159\u00edkladem m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zdravotnictv\u00ed<\/strong>, kde p\u016fsob\u00ed spole\u010dnost Pfizer<\/a>, ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby, kde p\u016fsob\u00ed spole\u010dnost National Grid<\/a>, nebo spot\u0159ebn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed, kde najdete Procter & Gamble<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Cyklick\u00e9 sektory<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Cyklick\u00e9 akcie jsou prav\u00fdm opakem defenzivn\u00edch akci\u00ed. Jsou siln\u011b nav\u00e1z\u00e1ny na ekonomickou situaci<\/strong>. P\u0159edstavte si akcie spole\u010dnost\u00ed, jejich\u017e produkty a slu\u017eby sice chcete, ale k \u017eivotu je nutn\u011b nepot\u0159ebujete. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M\u016f\u017ee se jednat o akcie spole\u010dnost\u00ed ze spot\u0159ebn\u00edho pr\u016fmyslu, t\u0159eba o spole\u010dnosti produkuj\u00edc\u00ed luxusn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed<\/strong>, jako je Ralph Lauren<\/a>. Nebo m\u016f\u017ee j\u00edt o zbytn\u00e9 z\u00e1\u017eitky a akcie spole\u010dnost\u00ed nab\u00edzej\u00edc\u00ed luxusn\u00ed plavby, jako je Royal Caribbean Cruises<\/a>. Nebo dokonce automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, kter\u00fd reprezentuje nap\u0159. Volkswagen<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Pokud ekonomika roste, nebo je na vrcholu, budou se podobn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti t\u011b\u0161it zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 popt\u00e1vce. <\/strong>Spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 maj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmy, nemaj\u00ed obavy z budoucnosti a proto si dovol\u00ed v\u00edce utr\u00e1cet. Ov\u0161em pokud se situace za\u010dne zhor\u0161ovat, budou tyto sektory mezi prvn\u00edmi, kter\u00e9 to poc\u00edt\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/span>
    \n

    Tip: <\/strong>Pokud budete dodr\u017eovat obecn\u00e1 pravidla investov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a>, nemus\u00ed v\u00e1s poklesy v dob\u011b recese znepokojovat. Dokud pozici neprod\u00e1te, ztr\u00e1ta nen\u00ed definitivn\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Technologick\u00fd sektor<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Akcie technologick\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed jsou samostatnou kapitolou. Jejich cena se mnohdy odv\u00edj\u00ed od p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch zisk\u016f,<\/strong> kter\u00e9 jsou nav\u00e1z\u00e1ny na \u00fasp\u011bchy nov\u00fdch produkt\u016f a slu\u017eeb. Proto jsou vysoce citliv\u00e9 na zm\u011bny n\u00e1lady na trhu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Pokud investo\u0159i (a z\u00e1kazn\u00edci) v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v realizaci pl\u00e1n\u016f na rozvoj spole\u010dnosti, bude tomu odpov\u00eddat i pozitivn\u00ed v\u00fdhled<\/strong> pro akcie dan\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Optimismus ov\u0161em m\u016f\u017ee rychle vyprchat, pokud na trz\u00edch panuje nejistota. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Proto technologick\u00fd sektor obecn\u011b roste v obdob\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu<\/strong>, ale je z\u00e1visl\u00fd i na dal\u0161\u00edch faktorech, kter\u00e9 u jin\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed nenajdeme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Jak jsou r\u016fzn\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 faktory ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1ny v pr\u016fb\u011bhu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    To, \u017ee v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu reaguj\u00ed jednotliv\u00e9 sektory rozd\u00edln\u011b<\/strong>, je zp\u016fsobeno jedine\u010dn\u00fdmi p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekami a p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitostmi, kter\u00e9 se na dan\u00fd sektor vztahuj\u00ed. Pokud dok\u00e1\u017eete tyto faktory pojmenovat a popsat, m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e1m to pomoci pochopit, jak\u00fd vliv budou ur\u010dit\u00e9 situace na dan\u00e1 aktiva m\u00edt a t\u00edm naj\u00edt va\u0161i dal\u0161\u00ed obchodn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Citlivost na sazby<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \u00darokov\u00e9 sazby reprezentuj\u00ed n\u00e1klady na p\u016fj\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz<\/strong>, co\u017e n\u00e1sledn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje \u00farove\u0148 spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f a kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch investic podnik\u016f. Proto nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky zvy\u0161uj\u00ed a sni\u017euj\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby<\/a>, aby omezily nebo stimulovaly hospod\u00e1\u0159skou aktivitu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ve chv\u00edl\u00edch, kdy se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed <\/strong>intervence<\/strong>, investo\u0159i \u010dasto pova\u017euj\u00ed defenzivn\u00ed akcie za lep\u0161\u00ed <\/strong>volbu, proto\u017ee jsou m\u00e9n\u011b vystaveny vlivu pohybu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ne\u017e cyklick\u00e9 nebo technologick\u00e9 akcie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    Obvykle se jedn\u00e1 o velk\u00e9, zaveden\u00e9 blue-chip spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 jejich postaven\u00ed na trhu ochra\u0148uje p\u0159ed dopady kriz\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o spole\u010dnosti ze sektor\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou pot\u0159ebn\u00e9, i kdy\u017e spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 omezuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 v\u00fddaje.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

    R\u016fst<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    R\u016fstov\u00e9 akcie<\/strong><\/a> se vyzna\u010duj\u00ed potenci\u00e1lem zvy\u0161ovat hodnotu rychleji, ne\u017e je tr\u017en\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br.<\/strong> Historick\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edklady jsou Apple<\/a> a Microsoft<\/a>, kter\u00e9 investor\u016fm p\u0159inesly p\u016fsobiv\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy v dob\u011b, kdy ostatn\u00ed technologick\u00e9 start-upy zkrachovaly v d\u016fsledku propad\u016f v hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m cyklu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 investuj\u00ed do expanzivn\u00edch r\u016fstov\u00fdch program\u016f s p\u0159\u00edslibem budouc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, maj\u00ed tendenci m\u00edt vysoce v\u00fdkonn\u00e9 akcie v obdob\u00edch ekonomick\u00e9ho r\u016fstu, ale v dob\u011b poklesu ekonomiky mohou dosahovat hor\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f, a v ur\u010dit\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech mohou i zkrachovat.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/span>
    \n

    Tip:<\/strong> S r\u016fstov\u00fdm investov\u00e1n\u00edm se poj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u00edra rizika a zisku. Proto dbejte na dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed metod pro \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed rizik<\/a>, a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b do portfolia zahr\u0148te i konzervativn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed investice.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Hodnota akci\u00ed<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Klasick\u00e9 modely <\/strong>oce\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed akci\u00ed<\/strong><\/a> jsou zalo\u017eeny na p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch budouc\u00edch zisc\u00edch spole\u010dnosti<\/strong>. B\u011bhem hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho zpomalen\u00ed se \u010dasto sni\u017euj\u00ed nejen progn\u00f3zy zisk\u016f, ale vznik\u00e1 tak\u00e9 nejistota.To se projevuje i p\u0159i stanovov\u00e1n\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed hodnoty spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    P\u0159i vstupu do recese si nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt jist\u00fd, jak dlouho bude pokles trvat a jak moc ovlivn\u00ed danou spole\u010dnost<\/strong>. To m\u016f\u017ee vyvolat tlak na pokles cen akci\u00ed. Opa\u010dn\u00e1 situace nast\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy\u017e ekonomika vstupuje do f\u00e1ze expanze a trhy napln\u00ed optimismus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Dividendy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Dividendy<\/strong><\/a> vypl\u00e1cen\u00e9 investor\u016fm jsou vlastn\u011b pod\u00edl na zisku spole\u010dnosti.<\/strong> S r\u016fstem a poklesem celkov\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 aktivity se m\u011bn\u00ed i p\u0159\u00edjmy podnik\u016f a s nimi m\u00edra vypl\u00e1cen\u00fdch dividend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v\u00fdplata dividend z\u00e1vis\u00ed na rozhodnut\u00ed veden\u00ed spole\u010dnosti<\/strong>, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v dob\u011b recese rozhodnuto o zastaven\u00ed nebo omezen\u00ed v\u00fdplaty dividend, s c\u00edlem ochr\u00e1nit rozvahu podniku a zajistit lep\u0161\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V\u011bt\u0161ina spole\u010dnost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed historii vypl\u00e1cen\u00ed dividend, k tomuto kroku ov\u0161em p\u0159istupuje, a\u017e kdy\u017e je to nevyhnuteln\u00e9, proto\u017ee je to jeden z faktor\u016f, na kter\u00fd investo\u0159i reaguj\u00ed rychle, a v\u011bt\u0161inou se neobejde bez poklesu ceny akci\u00ed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    D\u00e9lka trv\u00e1n\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu je velmi prom\u011bnliv\u00e1<\/strong>. Nikdo v\u00e1m s jistotou ne\u0159ekne, jak dlouho bude p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 krize (nebo r\u016fst) trvat. Proto byste m\u011bli dodr\u017eovat pravidla zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9ho investov\u00e1n\u00ed a investovat pouze takov\u00fd objem prost\u0159edk\u016f, kter\u00fd budete moci v pozici dr\u017eet po celou dobu va\u0161eho investi\u010dn\u00edho horizontu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    \u201eTrhy mohou b\u00fdt iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u00e9le, ne\u017e vy m\u016f\u017eete z\u016fstat solventn\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\nJohn May<\/a>nard Keynes<\/a><\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    \u010c\u00edm d\u00e9le budete schopni z\u016fstat na trhu, t\u00edm m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00e1s budou znepokojovat kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy v r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch cykl\u016f<\/strong>. Historick\u00e1 data nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee dostate\u010dn\u00fd \u010das va\u0161emu portfoliu umo\u017en\u00ed zotavit se z jak\u00e9koliv tr\u017en\u00ed volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Shrnut\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Znalost p\u0159irozen\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch cykl\u016f v\u00e1m pom\u016f\u017ee pochopit, kdy je nejlep\u0161\u00ed \u010das k n\u00e1kupu a do \u010deho investovat<\/strong>. Pokud si vytvo\u0159\u00edte kvalitn\u00ed strategii s diverzifikovan\u00fdmi<\/a> pozicemi, z\u00edsk\u00e1te ur\u010ditou flexibilitu, pokud se cyklus nevyvine podle va\u0161ich o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I kdy\u017e na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch plat\u00ed heslo, \u017ee jedinou jistotou je, \u017ee jist\u00e9 nen\u00ed nic<\/strong>, roky dat a v\u00fdzkumu uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee ur\u010dit\u00e9 vzorce<\/a> maj\u00ed tendenci se opakovat. A pr\u00e1v\u011b s jejich vyu\u017eit\u00edm m\u016f\u017eete d\u011blat lep\u0161\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Nav\u0161tivte Akademii eToro<\/a> a seznamte se s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi sektory, do kter\u00fdch m\u016f\u017eete investovat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Test<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
    Kter\u00fd z n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch sektor\u016f akci\u00ed je nejsiln\u011bji korelov\u00e1n s podkladovou ekonomikou?<\/div>\n
    Defenzivn\u00ed akcie<\/div>\n\n\n\n
    Cyklick\u00e9 akcie<\/div>\n<\/div>
    \u00a0<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n

    \u010cast\u00e9 dotazy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
    Kolik sektor\u016f existuje na akciov\u00e9m trhu?<\/dt>
    \n

    Rozd\u011blen\u00ed spole\u010dnost\u00ed si obvykle upravuj\u00ed jednotliv\u00ed broke\u0159i a burzy<\/a>. Ov\u0161em najdeme i zaveden\u00e9 standardy. Podle standardu Global Industry Classification Standard se trh d\u011bl\u00ed na 11 z\u00e1kladn\u00edch akciov\u00fdch sektor\u016f: informa\u010dn\u00ed technologie, komunika\u010dn\u00ed slu\u017eby, spot\u0159ebn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed, z\u00e1kladn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed, energie, finance, zdravotnictv\u00ed, nemovitosti, pr\u016fmysl, materi\u00e1ly a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 slu\u017eby. Tyto sektory se mohou d\u00e1le d\u011blit na podkategorie, aby investo\u0159i mohli co nejsnadn\u011bji nal\u00e9zt odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n<\/dd><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Co je strategie rotace sektor\u016f?<\/dt>
    \n

    Strategie rotace sektor\u016f spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee investor<\/a> m\u011bn\u00ed alokaci sv\u00e9ho portfolia mezi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdmi sektory v z\u00e1vislosti na p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch. Rotace sektor\u016f m\u016f\u017ee investor\u016fm pomoci vyu\u017e\u00edt sektory, u nich\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee v ur\u010dit\u00e9m ekonomick\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed budou m\u00edt lep\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost ne\u017e zbytek trhu, a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b tak dos\u00e1hnout lep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f zohled\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch riziko.<\/p>\n<\/dd><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Kter\u00e9 strategie jsou vhodn\u00e9 pro obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed na medv\u011bd\u00edm trhu?<\/dt>
    \n

    V obdob\u00edch poklesu cen aktiv se n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed investo\u0159i typu \u201ekup a dr\u017e<\/a>\u201c rozhodnou d\u00e1le postupn\u011b akumulovat akciov\u00e9 pozice, \u010d\u00edm\u017e dos\u00e1hnou ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 vstupn\u00ed ceny (tzv. pravideln\u00e9 investov\u00e1n\u00ed, dollar cost averaging, DCA). Alternativn\u011b n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed investo\u0159i preferuj\u00ed realizaci zisk\u016f z klesaj\u00edc\u00edch cen, a to prodejem na kr\u00e1tko<\/a> s vyu\u017eit\u00edm kontrakt\u016f na vyrovn\u00e1n\u00ed rozd\u00edlu (CFD).<\/p>\n<\/dd><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Jak zm\u011bny \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb signalizuj\u00ed posun v hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m cyklu?<\/dt>
    \n

    Rostouc\u00ed sazby \u010dasto zna\u010d\u00ed p\u0159eh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomiky \u2013 zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed se, aby zkrotily inflaci. Naopak sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb nazna\u010duje zpomaluj\u00edc\u00ed r\u016fst a pot\u0159ebu zlevnit \u00fav\u011bry, co\u017e m\u00e1 ekonomiku op\u011btovn\u011b stimulovat.<\/p>\n<\/dd><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Mohou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 cykly ovlivnit dom\u00e1c\u00ed trhy?<\/dt>
    \n

    Ano, mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchod, toky kapit\u00e1lu a n\u00e1lada investor\u016f \u00fazce propojuj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed a dom\u00e1c\u00ed trhy. Nap\u0159\u00edklad \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d siln\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi trhy<\/a> (jako je USA) p\u0159\u00edmo ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed popt\u00e1vku a nab\u00eddku zbo\u017e\u00ed u mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch partner\u016f.<\/p>\n<\/dd><\/div>\n<\/dl>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    Toto sd\u011blen\u00ed slou\u017e\u00ed pouze pro informa\u010dn\u00ed a vzd\u011bl\u00e1vac\u00ed \u00fa\u010dely a nem\u011blo by b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1no za investi\u010dn\u00ed poradenstv\u00ed, osobn\u00ed doporu\u010den\u00ed ani za nab\u00eddku \u010di v\u00fdzvu k n\u00e1kupu nebo prodeji jak\u00fdchkoli finan\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tento materi\u00e1l byl p\u0159ipraven bez zohledn\u011bn\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f nebo finan\u010dn\u00ed situace konkr\u00e9tn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edjemce a nebyl p\u0159ipraven v souladu s pr\u00e1vn\u00edmi a regula\u010dn\u00edmi po\u017eadavky na podporu nez\u00e1visl\u00e9ho v\u00fdzkumu. Jak\u00e9koli odkazy na minulou nebo budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost finan\u010dn\u00edho n\u00e1stroje, indexu nebo bal\u00ed\u010dku investi\u010dn\u00edch produkt\u016f nejsou a nem\u011bly by b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za spolehliv\u00fd ukazatel budouc\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Spole\u010dnost eToro neposkytuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky a nenese \u017e\u00e1dnou odpov\u011bdnost za p\u0159esnost nebo \u00faplnost obsahu t\u00e9to publikace.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    CFD jsou komplexn\u00edm n\u00e1strojem s vysok\u00fdm rizikem rychl\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty pen\u011bz v d\u016fsledku p\u00e1kov\u00e9ho efektu. 76% \u00fa\u010dt\u016f drobn\u00fdch investor\u016f p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed o pen\u00edze p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s CFD s t\u00edmto poskytovatelem. M\u011bli byste uv\u00e1\u017eit, zda opravdu ch\u00e1pete, jak funguj\u00ed CFD a zda si m\u016f\u017eete dovolit p\u0159ijmout tak vysok\u00e9 riziko ztr\u00e1ty pen\u011bz.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Je sice pravdou, \u017ee v\u00fdkonnost akcie v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje sama spole\u010dnost, kter\u00e1 je vyd\u00e1v\u00e1, ale jsou zde i dal\u0161\u00ed, z\u00e1sadn\u00ed faktory, kter\u00e9 management dan\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti ovlivnit nem\u016f\u017ee. A jejich vliv na ceny akci\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt enormn\u00ed. Mezi jeden z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch pat\u0159\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus, kter\u00e9mu se budeme v\u011bnovat v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku. Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus je p\u0159irozenou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed ekonomiky,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":721133,"parent":19761,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"sticky_cta_settings":"","footnotes":""},"asset_type":[],"class_list":["post-721086","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"Akciov\u00e9 sektory v r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu | eToro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze \u010dty\u0159 r\u016fzn\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed. Zjist\u011bte, jak ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto f\u00e1z\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee jedine\u010dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ovlivnit v\u00fdkonnost akciov\u00fdch sektor\u016f a faktor\u016f.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/721086\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Akciov\u00e9 sektory v r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu | eToro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze \u010dty\u0159 r\u016fzn\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed. Zjist\u011bte, jak ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto f\u00e1z\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee jedine\u010dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ovlivnit v\u00fdkonnost akciov\u00fdch sektor\u016f a faktor\u016f.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/721086\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"eToro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/eToro\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-17T12:42:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CZ-Economic-Cycle-Stock-Secors-and-Factors_Social-Image.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"630\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@eToro\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"12 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/\",\"name\":\"Akciov\u00e9 sektory v r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu | eToro\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CZ-Economic-Cycle-Stock-Secors-and-Factors_Social-Image.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-09-28T15:56:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-17T12:42:56+00:00\",\"description\":\"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze \u010dty\u0159 r\u016fzn\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed. Zjist\u011bte, jak ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto f\u00e1z\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee jedine\u010dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ovlivnit v\u00fdkonnost akciov\u00fdch sektor\u016f a faktor\u016f.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"cs\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"cs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CZ-Economic-Cycle-Stock-Secors-and-Factors_Social-Image.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CZ-Economic-Cycle-Stock-Secors-and-Factors_Social-Image.png\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":630},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Dom\u016f\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Investice\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus: akciov\u00e9 sektory, faktory\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/\",\"name\":\"eToro\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"cs\"},[]]}<\/script>","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Akciov\u00e9 sektory v r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu | eToro","description":"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze \u010dty\u0159 r\u016fzn\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed. Zjist\u011bte, jak ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto f\u00e1z\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee jedine\u010dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ovlivnit v\u00fdkonnost akciov\u00fdch sektor\u016f a faktor\u016f.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/721086","og_locale":"cs_CZ","og_type":"article","og_title":"Akciov\u00e9 sektory v r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu | eToro","og_description":"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze \u010dty\u0159 r\u016fzn\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed. Zjist\u011bte, jak ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto f\u00e1z\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee jedine\u010dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ovlivnit v\u00fdkonnost akciov\u00fdch sektor\u016f a faktor\u016f.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/721086","og_site_name":"eToro","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/eToro\/","article_modified_time":"2026-03-17T12:42:56+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":630,"url":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CZ-Economic-Cycle-Stock-Secors-and-Factors_Social-Image.png","type":"image\/png"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@eToro","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"12 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/","url":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/","name":"Akciov\u00e9 sektory v r\u00e1mci hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho cyklu | eToro","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CZ-Economic-Cycle-Stock-Secors-and-Factors_Social-Image.png","datePublished":"2023-09-28T15:56:04+00:00","dateModified":"2026-03-17T12:42:56+00:00","description":"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 ze \u010dty\u0159 r\u016fzn\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00ed. Zjist\u011bte, jak ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto f\u00e1z\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee jedine\u010dn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem ovlivnit v\u00fdkonnost akciov\u00fdch sektor\u016f a faktor\u016f.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"cs","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"cs","@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CZ-Economic-Cycle-Stock-Secors-and-Factors_Social-Image.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/CZ-Economic-Cycle-Stock-Secors-and-Factors_Social-Image.png","width":1200,"height":630},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/economic-cycle\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Dom\u016f","item":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Investice","item":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/investing\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus: akciov\u00e9 sektory, faktory"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/","name":"eToro","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"cs"},[]]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/721086"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/101"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=721086"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/721086\/revisions"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/19761"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/721133"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=721086"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"asset_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/cs-cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asset_type?post=721086"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}