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𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗠𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 There’s an old joke in economics, “He’s a brilliant economist; he successfully predicted 9 of the last 3 recessions!” It applies equally well to forecasting stock markets. I don’t know which way the market will go next, and far smarter people than me don’t know either, so I don’t try to make predictions and instead I have endeavoured to design a strategy to maximise gains and minimise losses regardless of what happens. Below is an outline of my plan for this portfolio and our exposure to the 3 main investment factors I target; Small Cap, Value and Momentum. 𝗜𝗳 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗚𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗨𝗽 This will likely be indicated by the $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 rising. In this case you’ll likely see only limited portfolio activity. Momentum We’ll continue to ride the rising market which will likely cause our Momentum investments to continue rising and their trailing stops will rise as well ready to automatically close those positions if the market subsequently drops. Our Momentum positions are ones that have risen above what I believe is their intrinsic value over at least the 2 previous quarters and which we have held for longer than 12 months. Small Cap The rising market has already caused some of our Small Cap stocks to become Medium Cap and this trend would likely continue in a rising market. I will try to invest more into some of our Small Cap holdings to keep the portfolio balanced, but only if they continue to exhibit Value characteristics. I may also trim some Medium Cap positions to maintain balance. I will also invest in new companies should there be new IPOs or new assets added to eToro that have both Small Cap + Value status. I define Small Cap as companies with market capitalisations below USD $3 billion. Value These are companies that I believe are either trading below their intrinsic value or which have low ratios such as Price-To-Book and Price-To-FCF (Free Cash Flow). Value stocks have become harder to find over the last few quarters and that will likely continue in a rising market with many of our Value investments turning into Momentum investments due to causes such as multiple expansions. 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 This would be the major indexes going down by between 10% and 20% from their most recent highs. In this case you would likely see more portfolio activity than in the rising market scenario. In fact I have many Limit Orders in place to automatically open new positions if this happens. Momentum Once Momentum has run its course the Trailing Stops we have in place would likely be triggered causing the positions to be closed automatically to prevent losses. This will then increase our cash balance ready to be invested in new positions. Small Cap Some medium cap companies, both in the portfolio and on my watchlist, would likely drop back down into Small Cap territory while possibly decreasing this factor’s weighting in the portfolio. In this event I will likely open new positions in some companies on the watchlist including Small Cap and some Large Cap holdings in order to keep the factors balanced. Value Thanks to some recent Momentum positions being closed, we already have sufficient cash on hand to invest into many companies that will begin to exhibit Value characteristics. Many defense related stocks have backlogs and future projected earnings that are not directly linked to the broader economy’s performance so we’ll likely invest in more of these types of stocks. This is what I did during 2021 and early 2022 which helped the portfolio to outperform the $SPX500 by more than 25% in 2022 – see https://bullaware.com/etoro/space-investor 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗵 This is when the major indexes drop by more than 20%. If this happens then not only would all of our Trailing Stops have been triggered, our small number of Hard Stops are also likely to trigger closing those positions and leaving us with plenty of cash ready to invest in under-priced stocks even after our automatic buy orders have been filled. When the $SPX500 had a 24.77% drawdown in 2022 we only had a 13.42% drawdown and I used the remaining cash balance to buy up undervalued quality stocks which led to our strong performance in 2023 and 2024. I have a long shopping list of companies I will manually review to ensure they’re still in good health and I’ll use our remaining cash balance to buy up the best of the discounted stocks. Momentum With few or none of these stocks remaining in the portfolio at this point, I’ll be looking to find undervalued big tech stocks with space related activities such as $MSFT, $GOOGL and $AMZN and open new positions if their valuations are attractive which will hopefully become future Momentum plays again. Continued in the comments...
𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 I employ evidence based portfolio management techniques shown to maximize returns over many years. How I manage & exploit long term risk: https://etoro.tw/4dLMutA How I maximize returns after expenses: https://etoro.tw/3MuCGbi 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 - 𝗠𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝘆 𝗔𝗺𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 The current recommended minimum is $400 which is necessary to copy all positions in the portfolio. The system will allow you to copy with $200 but that won't be enough to copy all positions and you won't get the same returns as this portfolio if you do that - see more about my recommended copy settings at https://etoro.tw/3SYpuit 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗥𝘂𝗹𝗲𝘀 • Only space related (see below) • No leverage • No short selling • No ETFs • Weightings: no single asset will be manually given a weighting above 10% of the portfolio value, and any that organically grow to more than 20% will be trimmed back to below 20% within 7 days. 𝗠𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 To be eligible for this portfolio a company must meet one of the following conditions: • Provides or is developing products or services designed for use in space, or for use by organizations that operate in space; or • Offers products or services that are largely dependent of space infrastructure; or • They are invested in one or more companies that operate in space. Examples of why the following companies qualify: • $GOOGL is a significant shareholder in SpaceX • $AMZN is developing Project Kuiper, a low-latency broadband internet satellite network • $GRMN products are dependent on satellites • $RR.L is currently working on nuclear power and propulsion systems for the UK Space Agency See a complete list of portfolio companies and their space businesses at https://etoro.tw/3APpiMw I don’t have rules about the minimum percentage of revenue companies generate directly from space because this can be a very difficult or impossible number to get from many companies. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗚𝗼𝗮𝗹𝘀 I aim to outperform the following space related ETFs over the next 5 years: • ARKX - ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (Actively Managed) • ITA - iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (Index based) • ROKT - SPDR S&P Kensho Final Frontiers ETF (Index based) • UFO - Procure Space ETF (Index based) The index based funds are not forward looking; they’re designed to measure overall sector performance and make no allowances for which companies are likely to return the best results for investors in the future. ARKX represents more challenging competition because they have a talented research team and are forward looking and have few restrictions on what they can invest in - for example they have previously held Netflix. I also aim to outperform the S&P 500 ($SPX500) over the next 5 to 10 years. In addition to investing in established companies that should grow in line with the index, I am investing in select new small cap entrants as they come to market that I believe will collectively grow at a higher rate than the S&P 500. 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱𝘀 & 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 My investment decisions are based on fundamental analysis. My approach primarily involves analyzing public information about a company and its management, studying their balance sheets, profit and loss statements, SEC filings and listening to earnings calls and webcasts. Additionally, I have a terminal with another broker and I read subscription based fundamental analysis & research from sources such as Morningstar. I also follow over 200 space companies on social media and I’m actively engaged in multiple online space communities with thousands of space industry workers and space enthusiasts. You can read an outline of my investment thesis for space at https://etoro.tw/4dRuHBq 𝗠𝘆 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 Over 30 years of experience as a business owner, founder, CEO and director including private companies, a not-for-profit, and an unlisted public company. Although my professional experience is primarily in the Music Industry as an Executive Director of a research company, I have been a life-long aficionado of all things space. For example, one of my earliest memories is of watching an Apollo launch on TV; in the 90s I was involved in an effort to develop a commercial moon base called The Artemis Project - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_Project You can follow me on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/user/JPhonical and I recently joined Twitter: https://twitter.com/Space_Horton Questions & comments are welcome! 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝘆 𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 I maintain a list at https://etoro.tw/476Aws5
𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 @𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲-𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 Part 1 of 7 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲? There are many reasons and they are mutually supportive; advancements in one area tend to lead to advancements in the others to varying degrees, and I mean that in both the technological and economic senses. For example, increased demand from governments stimulates technological and commercial developments that both governments and the private sector can economically benefit from. We saw this with NASA’s Commercial Cargo Resupply program which resulted in NASA having access to the Falcon 9 rocket for about a $440 million investment instead of the $4 billion a NASA study suggested it would have cost using similar methods NASA used to procure SLS. The Falcon 9 would go on to become partially reusable and massively reduce the cost of accessing orbit. It can also be argued that this success spawned the new era of space investment and technological progress known variously as NewSpace and Space 2.0. Thank you NASA and SpaceX! In the following sections I will outline 6 of the key forces driving accelerating demand for space related products and services and how my investment approach is designed to capture excess returns from them: • Part 2: Sovereign Access https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__028e1b6d-54ea-4678-bbd2-f681b2fbfa6f • Part 3: National Security https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__743728ef-9171-4f1e-8523-d0a9a58f848a • Part 4: Robotics and AI https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__9b7bdf6e-581b-45b8-a6e8-245bfe735895 • Part 5: Space Internet https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__03047f3c-0928-4ff4-83d4-095fd6d65292 • Part 6: Uncapped Resources https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__a71ea81c-e2ba-48c0-8681-7bc3f6834c35 • Part 7: Making Human Consciousness Multiplanetary https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__1904ddbe-e2fc-4acb-82b1-107211531bf5
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