Mentioned
Ishares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM
-10.36 (-3.55%)
281.72
281.73
State Street SPDR EURO STOXX 50
FEZ
-1.54 (-2.25%)
66.89
66.91
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY
-19.54 (-2.58%)
738.20
738.23
Georgios Fatouros
Georgios Fatouros
Greece
3mo
Edited
๐Ÿ“Š ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ & ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—–๐—ผ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜† โ€“ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฒ Hello everyone, This past week reshaped the geopolitical landscape. The US-Israel joint strikes on Iran, the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, retaliatory strikes across the Gulf, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz shocked global markets. ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—œ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜ This was a broad risk-off event. No region was spared: โ€ข $IWM (Ishares Russell 2000 ETF) ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐Ÿฐ.๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ% โ€” US mid/small caps hit hardest on growth fears โ€ข $FEZ (State Street SPDR EURO STOXX 50) ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐Ÿณ.๐Ÿต๐Ÿด% โ€” Europe punished by energy exposure and proximity to the conflict โ€ข MSCI ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐Ÿฏ.๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿณ% โ€ข VIX surged above 29, WTI broke above $90/bbl โ€” highest since late 2023 The market is pricing a geopolitical supply-risk premium in energy, which transmits through higher oil inputs slowing disinflation, elevated rate volatility, and a classic shift toward lower beta and higher-quality cash flows. ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ผ ๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ Our portfolio was not immune. March return stands at ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐Ÿฑ.๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฒ%, impacted mostly from the same growth names that delivered our strong YTD performance (+๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ.๐Ÿณ๐Ÿฒ%, compared to roughly ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐Ÿญ.๐Ÿณ% for $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF)). Drawdowns during geopolitical shocks are normal. ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜'๐˜€ ๐—ก๐—ฒ๐˜…๐˜ โ€” ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ On Monday, I will implement our scheduled rebalancing. Our system's latest signals are ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜ we're seeing the rotation points toward ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฟ-๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฎ, ๐˜ƒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ-๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฑ, ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜€ adjusting positioning based on data, not emotion. The base case from most institutional research is that this conflict will be relatively contained in duration. But the distribution of risks has shifted, and tail scenarios such as prolonged Hormuz disruption, sustained $100+ oil cannot be ignored. I'll share the rebalance details once implemented. โ€” George
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
3 Mentioned
Ishares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM
Ishares Russell 2000 ETF
State Street SPDR EURO STOXX 50
FEZ
State Street SPDR EURO STOXX 50
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF
2 replies
1 reply
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