Leonid Zadorozhnykh @ProDoser: "The report I have been..."

Finland

The report I have been waiting months for finally dropped today. And if you follow me, you know how loud I have been about this one lately. Short version first, for anyone who just wants the vibe: It is all good. Better than good. I read it, and it confirmed the same read on the industry i had for a long time. Nothing to panic about. I am holding, and I am looking to add if possible. For those who want the numbers and the deeper reasons why, keep going. $ASML (ASML Holding NV) is the company behind the machines that print every advanced chip on earth. Literally, it’s NOT POSSIBLE to make modern chip without this monopoly. $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) Terafab $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) chips to AI data centers $TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR) - chips for everything from iPhones to laptops None of it would be possible without ASML machines. So their outlook works less like one earnings report and more like a map of where the whole industry is heading. That is why I watch it. Here is what the map shows now. Q2 sales hit €9.3B, up 21% from a year ago. Management raised the full-year target again, to €43-45B. Next quarter alone they guided €11-12B. The line that really matters sits further out though. ASML is expanding 2027 EUV capacity by 30%, and already looking at another 30% on top for 2028. Their CEO said they are close to having every EUV order they need for next year already locked in. So the 2027 machines are largely spoken for. This buildout is not a forecast. It is alrady booked and clients show their commitments to buy everything ASML can produce. And booked machines get run. If fabs plan to run them flat out, the chipmakers clearly trust the chips will sell. That is the entire chain confirmed by the one supplier who sees all of it at once. No new thesis from me today. Just my old one, reinforced. The buildout is not cooling off. It is accelerating. Headlines keep calling the top, and I keep reading filings that say the opposite. One more part I love as a long-term holder. ASML does not sell a machine and vanish. Every tool it installs feeds a service and upgrade business called Installed Base Management. That stream grew 26% last year to €8.2B, earns fatter margins than the hardware, and climbs with every unit shipped. More machines today means more recurring revenue for the next decade. Memory demand is set to grow around 75% this year, which quietly rewards my $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) position on the side. Steady growth with a recurring engine humming underneath. That is the kind of boring I am glad to hold for years. So where do you sit - first inning of this buildout, or the last? ——— ℹ️ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal opinions and market observations and is not financial advice. 🤝 You can start copying my trades from just 300$ - check pinned post for more details. ⚠️ Past skyrocketing gains are not a guarantee of future results.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.