{"id":1076097,"date":"2025-06-06T11:30:29","date_gmt":"2025-06-06T08:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/?p=1076097"},"modified":"2026-03-20T19:43:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T17:43:30","slug":"deep-dive-is-starbucks-a-turnaround-candidate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/news-and-analysis\/market-insights\/deep-dives\/deep-dive-is-starbucks-a-turnaround-candidate\/","title":{"rendered":"Deep Dive: Is Starbucks a Turnaround Candidate?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Starbucks has struggled to keep pace with the overall markets. Will new management help? The Daily Breakdown dives in.<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before we dive in, let\u2019s make sure you\u2019re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. <\/span><\/i><b><i>To keep getting our daily insights<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, all you need to do is <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/login\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">log in<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to your eToro account.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h2>Friday&#8217;s TLDR<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SBUX has an MVP CEO<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the turnaround will take time<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And expectations are climbing<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Deep Dive<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Starbucks has been battered from its highs, down 30% from its 2021 peak. Overall, the S&amp;P 500 has done quite well in that span, rising about 35%. So while shares of Starbucks could be doing a whole lot worse, they have clearly underperformed the overall market. Will that change going forward?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>New Management<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It was clear that Starbucks was struggling and that its leadership team was flailing, so in September, Starbucks lured away Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol to run the company. Niccol cost a pretty penny to bring in \u2014 no pun intended \u2014 but shareholders were willing to take the risk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s based on his resume, which includes a successful run at Taco Bell, then jumpstarting Chipotle after a string of food-related illnesses tarnished its brand. Under Niccol\u2019s leadership from March 2018 to August 2024, Chipotle\u2019s revenue doubled, profits increased seven-fold, and the stock climbed more than 800%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The hope here is that Niccol can help turn around Starbucks. The reality is that it will take more than a quarter or two to fix.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Growth Expectations<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When it comes to the fundamentals, there\u2019s good news and bad news.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bad news is, analysts expect earnings to fall 26% this fiscal year \u2014 ouch. The good news is, Starbucks\u2019 fiscal year ends in September. The other good news is that consensus estimates call for 20% earnings growth in each of the next two years, and nearly 20% growth in the third year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Niccol &amp; Co. achieve that feat, the stock may very well be undervalued at today\u2019s prices.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-1076144\" src=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Starbucks_Annual_Dividend-1024x726.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"726\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Starbucks_Annual_Dividend-1024x726.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Starbucks_Annual_Dividend-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Starbucks_Annual_Dividend-768x544.png 768w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Starbucks_Annual_Dividend-1536x1089.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Starbucks_Annual_Dividend.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<h4><b>Risks<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Remember when we did the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/news-and-analysis\/the-daily-breakdown\/fundamental-analysis-boot-camp\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fundamental Analysis Boot Camp<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unfortunately, Starbucks isn\u2019t exactly cheap at current levels. At least, that\u2019s based on its forward price-to-earnings ratio (or the fP\/E), which takes the stock price (P) and divides it by expected earnings (E).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Think of it like this: Even if SBUX stock price stays flat, a decline in earnings makes the stock more expensive from a valuation perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is where investors have to decide if the stock is right for them.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>The Bottom Line<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The risk\/reward proposition is clear.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the one hand, you have a major potential turnaround in the works under proven leadership. If it works, shares of Starbucks could have notable upside from current levels. However, if the turnaround takes longer than expected or doesn\u2019t materialize to the degree that\u2019s expected, then the stock\u2019s returns may be disappointing.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It would be less risky to wait and see if the turnaround at Starbucks is taking hold. Investors who wait risk having the stock rise in anticipation of this development, then are forced to buy in at higher prices (albeit with more potential stability in the fundamentals). On the flip side, those who buy in early stand to benefit the most if the turnaround succeeds. But they also stand to risk more if the stock comes under pressure.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Want to receive these insights straight to your inbox?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"e-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/accounts\/sign-up\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sign up here<\/a><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Setup \u2014 Starbucks<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Starbucks shares popped from the mid-$70s in August on news of Niccol\u2019s hire and rallied all the way to $117.46 in March 2025 \u2014 less than 10% from all-time highs. However, the pullback has been swift, sending shares back down into the $70s before the latest bounce.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For several years now, shares have been stuck between approximately $75 and $115:<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1076099\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1076099\" style=\"width: 840px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1076099\" src=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-05-145510.png\" alt=\"Weekly chart of SBUX stock, for The Daily Breakdown\" width=\"840\" height=\"744\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-05-145510.png 840w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-05-145510-300x266.png 300w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Screenshot-2025-06-05-145510-768x680.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1076099\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Chart as of the close on 6\/5\/2025. Source: eToro ProCharts, courtesy of TradingView.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Going forward, investors want to see SBUX find support in the $70s and eventually rebound higher. If support fails to hold, lower prices could be in store, potentially down into the mid-$60s. However, if the rebound gains steam, the $115 range \u2014 which SBUX hit a few months ago \u2014 could be back in play.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Options<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Investors who believe shares will move higher over time may consider participating with calls or call spreads and can use long-dated options to participate. If speculating on a long-term rise, investors might consider using adequate time until expiration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For investors who would rather speculate on the stock decline or wish to hedge a long position, they could use puts or put spreads.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To learn more about options, consider visiting the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/academy\/options\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">eToro Academy<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Disclaimer:<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Starbucks has struggled to keep pace with the overall markets. Will new management help? The Daily Breakdown dives in. Before we dive in, let\u2019s make sure you\u2019re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your eToro account. Friday&#8217;s TLDR&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":130,"featured_media":1245682,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6819],"tags":[],"asset_type":[],"class_list":["post-1076097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deep-dives"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<title>The Daily Breakdown: Is Starbucks a Turnaround Candidate?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Starbucks has struggled to keep pace with the overall markets. Will new management help? 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