{"id":1174575,"date":"2025-11-21T11:48:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T09:48:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/?p=1174575"},"modified":"2026-03-20T19:32:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-20T17:32:10","slug":"deep-dive-the-best-month-of-the-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/news-and-analysis\/market-insights\/deep-dives\/deep-dive-the-best-month-of-the-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Deep Dive: The Best Month of the Year"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at stock market seasonality, with November historically being the best month of the year.<\/p>\n

Before we dive in, let\u2019s make sure you\u2019re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. <\/span><\/i>To keep getting our daily insights<\/i><\/b>, all you need to do is <\/span><\/i>log in<\/span><\/i><\/a> to your eToro account.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Deep Dive<\/span><\/h2>\n

When it comes to seasonality, investors often focus on September \u2014 historically the market\u2019s weakest month. Yet this year, it barely made a dent, as the S&P 500<\/a> and Nasdaq 100<\/a> extended multi-month win streaks right through \u201cSpooky September.\u201d Ironically, as we enter the strongest stretch of the year, markets are now sliding.<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>SPY<\/span><\/a> ETF is down 5.3% from its high, while the <\/span>QQQ<\/span><\/a> is off 8.5%, including a 2.4% drop on Thursday despite Nvidia\u2019s <\/span>solid earnings<\/span><\/a>. It doesn\u2019t help that bitcoin has fallen more than 30% from record highs as crypto continues to reel from its October 10th selloff.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Best Month of the Year<\/b><\/h4>\n

Looking back over the past 25 and 50 years, November stands out as the strongest month for equities, averaging returns above 2% \u2014 a feat no other month matches for either timeframe. However, as of Thursday\u2019s close, the S&P 500 is <\/span>down<\/b> over 4% for November. Historically, November and December have been the market\u2019s best back-to-back months, and November also kicks off what\u2019s considered the strongest six-month stretch of the year (November through April).<\/span><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/b><\/h4>\n

This historically bullish period is off to a rough start, though the S&P 500 remains up roughly 12% year to date. Investors can debate the causes \u2014 from crypto\u2019s decline and the government shutdown to the legal standing of tariffs, labor market weakness, the Fed\u2019s path on rates, or fears of an AI bubble. The reality is it\u2019s likely a combination of all of them.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As uncertainty rises, so does volatility, making investors hesitant to pay the premium valuations we saw at the end of Q3. Still, history shows the S&P 500 typically sees three 5% dips a year, and 10%+ pullbacks do happen. While more selling pressure could ensue, these types of corrections often refresh, rather than derail, a bull market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Want to receive these insights straight to your inbox?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sign up here<\/a><\/p>\n

The Setup \u2014 SPY ETF<\/span><\/h2>\n

The SPY<\/a> is down about 5% from its all-time highs right now. Shares tried to rally on Thursday and were up almost 2% at one point, but ultimately, SPY failed to regain its 50-day moving average and turned lower on the session. Now bulls are hoping it can find support near the $650 level, just as it has done since mid-September.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Daily
Chart as of the close on 11\/20\/2025. Source: eToro ProCharts, courtesy of TradingView.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

If this area acts as support, bulls will look for a rebound. However, it will need to clear the $675 area and the 50-day moving average in order for bulls to fully regain confidence. If the $650 area ultimately fails as support, it could open the door to a larger correction \u2014 potentially down to the 200-day moving average and the prior all-time highs near $610, which was a major breakout level in July.<\/span><\/p>\n

Options<\/b><\/h4>\n

It\u2019s worth noting that today is the monthly options expiration. Will some of those favorable seasonality stats kick in after this expiration or will the selling pressure continue?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Investors who are bullish could consider calls or call spreads as one way to speculate on further upside, while bearish investors could consider puts or put spreads to speculate on a further move to the downside. For options traders, it may be advantageous to have adequate time until the option\u2019s expiration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To learn more about options, consider visiting the <\/span>eToro Academy<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at stock market seasonality, with November historically being the best month of the year. Before we dive in, let\u2019s make sure you\u2019re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your eToro account.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":130,"featured_media":1245682,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6819],"tags":[],"asset_type":[],"class_list":["post-1174575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deep-dives"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"The Daily Breakdown's Deep Dive: The Best Month of the Year<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look at stock market seasonality, with November historically being the best month of the year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1174575\" \/>\n<meta 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