{"id":1243114,"date":"2026-03-13T11:44:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T09:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/?p=1243114"},"modified":"2026-03-20T00:11:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-19T22:11:19","slug":"deep-dive-checking-the-score-on-fico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/news-and-analysis\/market-insights\/deep-dives\/deep-dive-checking-the-score-on-fico\/","title":{"rendered":"Deep Dive: Checking the Score on FICO"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>FICO stock has been crushed, falling more than 50% from its highs. The Daily Breakdown digs into to see what&#8217;s going on.<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before we dive in, let\u2019s make sure you\u2019re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. <\/span><\/i><b><i>To keep getting our daily insights<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, all you need to do is <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/login\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">log in<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to your eToro account.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h2><b>Deep Dive<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/markets\/fico\">Fair Isaac Corporation<\/a> \u2014 ticker symbol \u201cFICO\u201d \u2014 operates in two main segments: Software, which provides decision-management solutions and the modular FICO Platform, and Scores \u2014 a concept consumers are likely more familiar with \u2014 which delivers credit-scoring products to businesses and consumer-facing scores through myFICO.com subscriptions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The company has faced a brutal one-two punch, as AI disruption worries and increased competitive pressure have culminated in the stock\u2019s pummeling. Shares have fallen 26% this week alone and are down more than 50% from the record high in December 2024.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the stock\u2019s tumble, the fundamentals have been holding up:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1243116 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO1-1024x726.png\" alt=\"FICO Fundamentals, for The Daily Breakdown\" width=\"1024\" height=\"726\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO1-1024x726.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO1-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO1-768x544.png 768w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO1-1536x1089.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO1.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notice how revenue (blue) and earnings (orange) continue to trend higher, while estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 also point to further growth. Meanwhile, operating margins (purple) have been drifting higher over the years and have \u2014 at least so far \u2014 avoided being squeezed lower, which is a main concern amid AI disruption and competitive concerns.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Future Growth Projections<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Bloomberg, analysts project the following:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Earnings Growth:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 40% in 2026, 26.7% in 2027, and 18.7% in 2028<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Revenue Growth:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 25.5% in 2026, 16.8% in 2027, and 12.5% in 2028<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/markets\/fico\/research\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Analysts currently have a consensus price target<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of ~$2,068 on FICO stock, implying about 87% upside to today\u2019s stock price. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Want to receive these insights straight to your inbox?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"e-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/accounts\/sign-up\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sign up here<\/a><\/p>\n<h2><b>Diving Deeper \u2014 Valuation<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Looking at the forward price-to-earnings ratio for FICO reveals an interesting setup. When the forward P\/E gets above 50, shares tend to be overvalued. However, now trading at roughly 24 times earnings, FICO stock is approaching a 10-year trough. The worry here is that the stock will suffer further valuation compression due to dampened sentiment and worries about its competitive advantage in key markets. Regardless, the valuation has come down significantly while key metrics like revenue and profit continue higher.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1243142\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1243142\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1243142\" src=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO2-1024x446.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"446\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO2-1024x446.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO2-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO2-768x335.png 768w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO2-1536x669.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/FICO2.png 1643w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1243142\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>FICO forward P\/E ratio. Source: eToro, Bloomberg.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h4><b>Risks\u00a0<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of FICO\u2019s key risks involves rising competitive and pricing pressure in mortgage credit scores, where FHFA\u2019s \u201clender choice\u201d framework opens the door for loans delivered to Fannie\/Freddie to use either a Classic FICO model or VantageScore 4.0, increasing the risk of share loss and\/or price concessions. This is a key business for Fair Isaac.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AI is another swing factor: it can strengthen Fair Isaac\u2019s decisioning software, but it also lowers barriers for rivals to build \u201cgood enough\u201d underwriting and fraud tools, potentially compressing differentiation and pricing over time. Even if fundamentals stay solid, investor sentiment could remain depressed if markets view mortgage competition as structural and AI as accelerating commoditization until FICO proves it can defend pricing and sustain share while monetizing AI-led upgrades. Beyond that, Fair Isaac faces the same market-wide, economic-related risks as many other sectors and industries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fair Isaac looks like a classic battle between solid fundamentals and weak sentiment \u2014 though that sentiment has soured for good reason. While the business is still growing, the valuation has reset sharply. That brings both opportunity and risk, as the stock now more accurately accounts for current risks, but could be vulnerable to further valuation compression until the company shows it can navigate mortgage competition, defend its edge against AI-driven disruption, and keep growth on track.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Disclaimer:<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FICO stock has been crushed, falling more than 50% from its highs. The Daily Breakdown digs into to see what&#8217;s going on. Before we dive in, let\u2019s make sure you\u2019re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to your eToro&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":130,"featured_media":1245682,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6819],"tags":[],"asset_type":[],"class_list":["post-1243114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deep-dives"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<title>The Daily Breakdown&#039;s Deep Dive: Checking the Score on FICO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"FICO stock has been crushed, falling more than 50% from its highs. 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