{"id":1283111,"date":"2026-08-07T11:22:52","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T08:22:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/?p=1283111"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:27:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:27:42","slug":"deep-dive-are-mcdonalds-golden-arches-still-shining","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/news-and-analysis\/market-insights\/deep-dives\/deep-dive-are-mcdonalds-golden-arches-still-shining\/","title":{"rendered":"Deep Dive: Are McDonald\u2019s Golden Arches Still Shining?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On a total-return basis, McDonald&#8217;s has climbed in 11 straight years. Now down almost 10% in 2026, The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look.<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before we dive in, let\u2019s make sure you\u2019re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. <\/span><\/i><b><i>To keep getting our daily insights<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, all you need to do is <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/login\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">log in<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to your eToro account.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Interested in more Deep Dive content? Check out <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/news-and-analysis\/market-insights\/deep-dives\/\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">our latest research<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<h2><b>Deep Dive<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/markets\/mcd\">McDonald\u2019s<\/a> is the world\u2019s largest restaurant chain, serving fast-food staples across a global network of company-operated and franchised locations. Its scale, brand recognition, and standardized operating model allow it to serve millions of customers across dozens of markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The business is increasingly driven by franchising rather than directly operating restaurants. In fiscal 2025, franchise revenue accounted for roughly 61.5% of total revenue, while the US contributed about 40.2%, highlighting both the company\u2019s asset-light model and its broad international reach.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Because of McDonald\u2019s strong brand and consistency, the company has become a staple among investors looking for capital return in the form of dividends and share buybacks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-1283112\" src=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/McDonalds_Annual_Dividend_and_Shares_Outstanding-1024x726.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"726\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/McDonalds_Annual_Dividend_and_Shares_Outstanding-1024x726.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/McDonalds_Annual_Dividend_and_Shares_Outstanding-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/McDonalds_Annual_Dividend_and_Shares_Outstanding-768x544.png 768w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/McDonalds_Annual_Dividend_and_Shares_Outstanding-1536x1089.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/McDonalds_Annual_Dividend_and_Shares_Outstanding.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">McDonald\u2019s could join the Dividend Kings later this year, an exclusive group of companies that have raised their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years. The company has increased its payout for 49 straight years, while its annual dividend has doubled over the past decade. During that same period, outstanding shares have fallen by more than 100 million.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Future Growth Projections<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While McDonald\u2019s is a consistent dividend payer, its earnings growth has been less steady. Net income has increased in three of the past five years and seven of the past 10. Looking ahead, analysts project the following, according to Bloomberg:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Earnings Growth:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 6% in 2026, 8.3% in 2027, and 7.8% in 2028<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Revenue Growth:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 5.1% in 2026, 5.1% in 2027, and 4.7% in 2028<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/markets\/mcd\/research\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Analysts currently have a consensus price target<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of ~$318 on MCD stock, implying about 15% upside to today\u2019s stock price. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Want to receive these insights straight to your inbox?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"e-cta\" href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/en-us\/accounts\/sign-up\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sign up here<\/a><\/p>\n<h2><b>Diving Deeper \u2014 Valuation<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After a seven-year rally, McDonald\u2019s stock has lost some momentum, declining in two of the past four years and falling about 10% so far in 2026. However, the down years \u2014 2022 and 2024 \u2014 brought relatively modest losses of 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively. Including dividends, McDonald\u2019s has generated positive total returns in each of the past 11 years, gaining more than 330% from 2015 through 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1283138\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1283138\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-1283138\" src=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/MCD1-1024x447.png\" alt=\"McDonald's Valuation, for The Daily Breakdown.\" width=\"1024\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/MCD1-1024x447.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/MCD1-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/MCD1-768x335.png 768w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/MCD1-1536x670.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/MCD1.png 1642w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1283138\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Forward P\/E and forward P\/FCF for MCD. Source: Bloomberg, etoro. 8\/6\/2026<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On valuation, MCD has generally found support near 20 times forward earnings. On a forward free cash flow basis, support has emerged around 16 to 17 times. Shares are trading near both levels now, although that\u2019s no guarantee that they will prove to be support.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>Risks\u00a0<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">McDonald\u2019s main risks are weaker consumer spending, especially among lower-income customers, and rising labor, food, occupancy, and financing costs that pressure franchisee profitability. Because most restaurants are franchised, strained operators or disputes over pricing, investment, and standards can affect systemwide performance. The company also faces intense competition, food-safety and reputational risks, changing consumer preferences, regulation, cyber disruptions, currency swings, and geopolitical instability across its international markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><b>The Bottom Line<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">McDonald\u2019s offers investors a durable global brand, an asset-light franchise model, and a long record of dividends, buybacks, and steady total returns. Its scale, loyalty program, and ongoing investments in technology and efficiency could help support continued growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The tradeoff is slower and less consistent earnings growth, along with pressure from weaker consumer spending, rising costs, and intense competition. With the stock near historical valuation support, the debate centers on whether its consistency and capital returns outweigh those operating risks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Disclaimer:<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On a total-return basis, McDonald&#8217;s has climbed in 11 straight years. Now down almost 10% in 2026, The Daily Breakdown takes a closer look. Before we dive in, let\u2019s make sure you\u2019re set to receive The Daily Breakdown each morning. To keep getting our daily insights, all you need to do is log in to&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":130,"featured_media":1245682,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6819],"tags":[],"asset_type":[],"class_list":["post-1283111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deep-dives"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<title>The Daily Breakdown&#039;s Deep Dive: Are McDonald\u2019s Golden Arches Still Shining?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On a total-return basis, McDonald&#039;s has climbed in 11 straight years. 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