jpmontero88
Edited
Post sobre: $ESNT (Essent Group) , $NA9 & $AN (AutoNation) Post NΒΊ: 1 Dear copiers, Good NEWs! I added 3 new Companies to our Strategy (1 of which is not in eToro, but good to know if you also use another broker)! Quick comments on each: π—‘π—˜π—ͺ $AN Biggest US Automotive Retailer. Cyclical (2 ~ 3 bear years, 5 ~ 10 bull years). The Cycle is still in a down trend (peak of 18M u/month ; we are at 13M ; could go to 12M [Normal Recession] or 9M [Severe]). But the weird things of this bear cycle is that Revenues & Profits are booming. This is mainly because Offer is also contracted (production shortage, micro-chips & supply chain issues), leading to high prices of used Cars mitigating the demand contraction. Why AN and not for example $LAD (Lithia Motors Inc) or $ABG (Asbury Automotive Group Inc) which are Growing much faster? Just for that same reason, they are growing faster (via acquisitions), with more debt and in case of Recession they could get hit harder. AN instead is using the excess of cash to buy back their shares (bought 33% of the company since COVID started and last week announced another 1billions buyback program). π™π™–π™§π™œπ™šπ™© π™‹π™§π™žπ™˜π™š: β‚¬πŸ­πŸ³πŸ± (Conservative: Assuming prices of New/Used cars back to normal, contracting Gross Margins back to 16,5% again). π™π™žπ™¨π™ : If the Recession is Severe one, the stock will be volatile $NA9 (Nagarro) IT Company (workforce in India). Provides Personalized Software to Companies of different Industries (well diversified). High Growth (Top and Bottom Line) mainly via acquisitions. Good Compounder. Align Management (own 18% of shares). Reasonably Valued at Fw EV/EBITDA of 15 vs Bigger Peers like $EPAM (EPAM Systems Inc.) , $DAVA (Endava plc-ADR) or $GLOB (Globant SA) trading at around 25 ~ 30. π™π™–π™œπ™šπ™© π™‹π™§π™žπ™˜π™š: β‚¬πŸ­πŸ΄πŸ΄ π™π™žπ™¨π™ : If Growth rates decrease, it could suffer a Valuation Contraction (even though at 15 think we got a Margin of Safety) $ESNT I previously invested in ESNT getting 17% returns + 1% dividends in 1,5 years. The Private Mortgage Insurance is an Oligopoly Industry (only 6 PMI in US). ESNT is the most Efficient and Robust of all 6. Value Stock. The industry growth (NIW) is going to cool down but delinquency rates also (boosting earnings as provision for losses and LAE will be reduce). Currently the stock is trading at only 6,5 EV/FCF and 1 P/BV, it pays 2% dividend and announce a 250M buyback program (6% of Mkt Cap) π™‹π™§π™žπ™˜π™š π™π™–π™§π™œπ™šπ™©: $𝟲𝟬 π™π™žπ™¨π™ : Mortgage market crash. For more info of the PMI industry check my previous post: 3 etoro.tw/3JeM6XF 2 etoro.tw/3ZkfNfu 1 etoro.tw/3ZlugrF $STNG (Scorpio Tankers Inc) , $RUI.PA (Rubis SCA) , $WBD (Warner Bros Discovery Inc) , $GNW (Genworth Financial Inc) , $FL (Foot Locker Inc) , $BABA (Alibaba-ADR) , $DBX (Dropbox Inc) Cheers, JP Translate