Some thoughts on the two week ceasefire announced, as you know I remain materially exposed to oil and gas, so I am not writing this from the cheap seats.
This is not peace, and it is not normalization. What we have is a Pakistan-brokered, two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, tied to the Strait of Hormuz and a new round of talks in Islamabad. That reduces the risk of immediate escalation, but it does not resolve the underlying conflict.
The main reason to stay cautious is that the different parties are not describing the same agreement. Washington’s position is basically a pause to strikes for two weeks, reopen Hormuz, and use the window to negotiate. Tehran’s position is more conditional as Iran says it will stop counter-attacks if attacks on Iran stop, but it has also rejected the idea of a merely temporary ceasefire and has linked any lasting peace to broader demands, including sanctions relief, reconstruction, and tighter control over passage through Hormuz. Israel supports the U.S. pause on Iran, but says Lebanon is not included, which adds another layer of uncertainty to what has actually been agreed. AP also reports that the process has already been clouded by conflicting versions of Iran’s proposed framework, including differences over enrichment language and reported shipping-fee proposals.
Oil is a physical market. Headlines can remove fear from the price very quickly, but they do not move a single barrel on their own. Since the ceasefire announcement, the oil curve has behaved in a way that makes sense to me. The front month has sold off hard, down roughly 16.5%, while December 2026 is down only about 4% and December 2027 is down about 2.4%. That is the market pricing out some portion of the immediate panic.
The front month is acting as a barometer for sentiment, headlines, and the probability of a near-term disruption. When traders believe the next strike wave has been delayed, or that the odds of an immediate closure in Hormuz have fallen, the front of the curve is where that relief shows up, it is the most exposed to fear, and therefore the quickest to retrace when fear eases.
Im looking to lean into weakness here.
$OIL... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
Nice assessment.
For me the spanner in the works is as always Israel.
Israel does not want a deal of any description that leaves any leader with any sort of credibility in place in Iran, they would much rather continue attacks and land grabs, they will foment trouble and if all else fails fabricate... Show More
You are doing well to stay invested in oil. April 19 to 21, some really heavy attack coming up.... Show More
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