{"id":1250447,"date":"2026-03-31T11:31:22","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T08:31:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/?p=1250447"},"modified":"2026-03-31T11:31:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T08:31:22","slug":"valutazioni-settore-tech-crollo-multipli-utili-sp500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/it\/news-and-analysis\/market-insights\/valutazioni-settore-tech-crollo-multipli-utili-sp500\/","title":{"rendered":"Il paradosso del settore tech: utili record, ma valutazioni ai minimi degli ultimi 5 anni"},"content":{"rendered":"

C\u2019\u00e8\u00a0un\u00a0dato\u00a0che, da solo,\u00a0dovrebbe\u00a0fermare\u00a0la\u00a0lettura\u00a0e\u00a0costringere\u00a0ogni\u00a0investitore\u00a0a\u00a0rivedere\u00a0le\u00a0proprie\u00a0convinzioni\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0radicate. Per la prima volta dopo anni di\u00a0egemonia\u00a0incontrastata, il\u00a0settore\u00a0tecnologico\u00a0costa\u00a0meno\u00a0del resto del\u00a0mercato,\u00a0segnando\u00a0uno\u00a0scollamento\u00a0tra\u00a0prezzi\u00a0e\u00a0fondamentali\u00a0senza\u00a0precedenti. Non\u00a0siamo\u00a0di\u00a0fronte\u00a0a\u00a0una\u00a0semplice\u00a0flessione, ma a un\u00a0radicale\u00a0cambio\u00a0di regime\u00a0valutativo\u00a0che\u00a0riscrive\u00a0la\u00a0mappa\u00a0del\u00a0rischio\u00a0per il 2026.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Oggi il P\/E\u00a0forward\u00a0del\u00a0settore\u00a0tecnologico\u00a0(ETF XLK<\/a>) \u00e8\u00a0sceso\u00a0a circa 18,8x,\u00a0scivolando\u00a0sotto\u00a0quello\u00a0dell\u2019indice\u00a0generale (ETF SPY<\/a>)\u00a0che\u00a0si\u00a0attesta\u00a0a 19,7x. Si\u00a0tratta\u00a0di\u00a0una\u00a0deviazione\u00a0brutale\u00a0rispetto a un regime\u00a0consolidato\u00a0dove,\u00a0negli\u00a0ultimi\u00a0cinque anni, il tech ha\u00a0trattato\u00a0stabilmente\u00a0a\u00a0premio\u00a0con\u00a0una\u00a0media di 26x\u00a0contro\u00a0le 20,7x\u00a0dell\u2019S&P\u00a0500. Questa\u00a0anomalia\u00a0statistica,\u00a0superiore\u00a0alle due\u00a0deviazioni\u00a0standard,\u00a0suggerisce\u00a0che\u00a0la “vetta” del\u00a0mercato\u00a0non \u00e8\u00a0crollata, ma\u00a0si\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0drasticamente\u00a0abbassata.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Per\u00a0comprendere\u00a0questa\u00a0metamorfosi,\u00a0bisogna\u00a0guardare\u00a0alla\u00a0violenta\u00a0contrazione\u00a0dei\u00a0multipli\u00a0che\u00a0sta\u00a0oscurando\u00a0la\u00a0tenuta\u00a0degli\u00a0utili. L\u2019S&P 500 ha\u00a0perso\u00a0circa il 7,3% in\u00a0prezzo, ma il\u00a0suo\u00a0multiplo\u00a0si\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0contratto\u00a0di\u00a0oltre\u00a0il 14,3%. Nel\u00a0settore\u00a0tecnologico\u00a0il\u00a0movimento\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0stato\u00a0molto\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0violento:\u00a0prezzi\u00a0in calo di circa l\u201911,4%, ma P\/E NTM in\u00a0discesa\u00a0del 28,4%.\u00a0Questo\u00a0non \u00e8 un semplice\u00a0movimento\u00a0di\u00a0mercato. \u00c8 un\u00a0cambiamento\u00a0nel\u00a0prezzo\u00a0che\u00a0gli\u00a0investitori\u00a0sono\u00a0disposti\u00a0a\u00a0pagare\u00a0per ogni\u00a0unit\u00e0\u00a0di utile.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

E\u00a0questo\u00a0accade\u00a0mentre\u00a0gli\u00a0utili\u00a0non\u00a0stanno\u00a0rallentando. Anzi. Le\u00a0stime\u00a0FactSet\u00a0indicano\u00a0una\u00a0crescita\u00a0degli\u00a0utili\u00a0dell\u2019S&P\u00a0500 del 13%\u00a0nel\u00a0primo\u00a0trimestre\u00a0del 2026. Se\u00a0confermata,\u00a0sarebbe\u00a0il\u00a0sesto\u00a0trimestre\u00a0consecutivo\u00a0a doppia\u00a0cifra. Su base annua, la\u00a0crescita\u00a0attesa\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0intorno\u00a0al 17,1%, con\u00a0ricavi\u00a0in\u00a0aumento\u00a0del 9,7% e\u00a0margini\u00a0netti\u00a0al 13,2%, sopra le\u00a0medie\u00a0degli\u00a0ultimi\u00a0anni. Nove\u00a0settori\u00a0su\u00a0undici\u00a0sono\u00a0attesi\u00a0in\u00a0crescita, e la\u00a0tecnologia\u00a0resta\u00a0il\u00a0contributore\u00a0principale.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00c8 qui\u00a0che\u00a0si\u00a0crea\u00a0la\u00a0tensione. I\u00a0multipli\u00a0scendono\u00a0mentre\u00a0gli\u00a0utili\u00a0crescono. Non \u00e8\u00a0una\u00a0crisi\u00a0dei\u00a0fondamentali. \u00c8 un\u00a0repricing\u00a0del\u00a0rischio. Il\u00a0mercato\u00a0non ha\u00a0smesso\u00a0di credere\u00a0nella\u00a0crescita. Ha\u00a0smesso\u00a0di\u00a0pagarla\u00a0allo\u00a0stesso\u00a0prezzo.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dentro\u00a0questo\u00a0movimento, la\u00a0tecnologia\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0l\u2019epicentro. \u00c8 il\u00a0settore\u00a0con la\u00a0crescita\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0elevata, con\u00a0utili\u00a0attesi\u00a0in\u00a0aumento\u00a0del 45,1%\u00a0su\u00a0base annua. Ma\u00a0questo\u00a0numero,\u00a0preso\u00a0da solo, \u00e8\u00a0fuorviante. Il\u00a0contributo\u00a0dei\u00a0semiconduttori\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0dominante. Senza di loro, la\u00a0crescita\u00a0del\u00a0settore\u00a0scenderebbe\u00a0al 20,3%. Non \u00e8 un\u00a0dettaglio. \u00c8\u00a0una\u00a0trasformazione\u00a0strutturale. La\u00a0crescita\u00a0non \u00e8\u00a0sparita. Si \u00e8\u00a0concentrata. E il\u00a0mercato\u00a0sta\u00a0prezzando\u00a0esattamente\u00a0questo.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

I\u00a0grandi\u00a0nomi\u00a0della\u00a0tecnologia,\u00a0quelli\u00a0che\u00a0guidano\u00a0la\u00a0crescita\u00a0globale,\u00a0trattano\u00a0oggi\u00a0su\u00a0multipli\u00a0compressi\u00a0rispetto alla loro\u00a0storia. Nvidia\u00a0<\/a>intorno\u00a0alle 19,9x, con\u00a0utili\u00a0attesi\u00a0a\u00a08,29\u00a0dollari\u00a0per azione. Microsoft<\/a> poco sopra le 20x, con EPS\u00a0a 17,56. Google\u00a0<\/a>intorno\u00a0alle 23x, con\u00a0utili\u00a0sopra\u00a0gli\u00a011\u00a0dollari. Numeri solidi,\u00a0crescita\u00a0visibile, ma\u00a0multipli\u00a0in\u00a0contrazione.\u00a0Questo\u00a0\u00e8 il passaggio\u00a0chiave. Il\u00a0mercato\u00a0riconosce\u00a0la\u00a0crescita, ma non la\u00a0paga\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0a\u00a0premio.\u00a0\u00a0La\u00a0considera\u00a0gi\u00e0\u00a0incorporata.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Il\u00a0quadro\u00a0cambia\u00a0completamente\u00a0quando\u00a0si\u00a0esce\u00a0dal tech.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nel consumer\u00a0discretionary, XLY\u00a0<\/a>tratta\u00a0a circa 24,2x, con\u00a0prezzi\u00a0in calo da\u00a0inizio\u00a0anno dell\u201911,5% e\u00a0multipli\u00a0in\u00a0discesa\u00a0del 13,9%. Nei\u00a0financials, XLF<\/a> \u00e8 a 14,4x, con\u00a0una\u00a0dinamica\u00a0simile,\u00a0prezzi\u00a0a -11,7% e\u00a0compressione\u00a0del\u00a0multiplo\u00a0del 14,1%.\u00a0Negli\u00a0industriali, XLI\u00a0<\/a>resta\u00a0intorno\u00a0alle 24,5x, con\u00a0prezzi\u00a0addirittura\u00a0leggermente\u00a0positivi\u00a0(+0,9%) e\u00a0multipli\u00a0sostanzialmente\u00a0stabili.\u00a0Nell\u2019energia\u00a0accade\u00a0qualcosa\u00a0di\u00a0diverso. XLE\u00a0<\/a>guadagna\u00a0circa il 38,6% in\u00a0prezzo\u00a0da\u00a0inizio\u00a0anno, con\u00a0multipli\u00a0intorno\u00a0alle 18,5x. Qui\u00a0prezzo\u00a0e\u00a0fondamentali\u00a0si\u00a0muovono\u00a0in\u00a0sincronia, per\u00a0motivi\u00a0ormai\u00a0ben\u00a0noti.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ma \u00e8\u00a0nei\u00a0difensivi\u00a0che\u00a0si\u00a0coglie\u00a0il punto\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0interessante.\u00a0\u00a0Consumer\u00a0staples<\/a>\u00a0salgono\u00a0del 5,4% con\u00a0multipli\u00a0intorno\u00a0alle 19,3x. Utilities<\/a> +7,5% con P\/E simile.\u00a0\u00a0E poi\u00a0i\u00a0singoli\u00a0titoli. Walmart\u00a0a 42,3x.\u00a0Costco\u00a0a 46,8x.\u00a0Multipli\u00a0che\u00a0non\u00a0riflettono\u00a0un\u2019accelerazione\u00a0degli\u00a0utili, ma\u00a0una\u00a0domanda\u00a0di\u00a0stabilit\u00e0.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ed \u00e8 qui\u00a0che\u00a0il\u00a0mercato\u00a0cambia natura. Non \u00e8\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0una\u00a0distinzione\u00a0tra\u00a0growth\u00a0e\u00a0value. \u00c8\u00a0una\u00a0distinzione\u00a0tra\u00a0ci\u00f2\u00a0che\u00a0pu\u00f2\u00a0sorprendere\u00a0e\u00a0ci\u00f2\u00a0che\u00a0rassicura. Il\u00a0comportamento\u00a0del\u00a0capitale,\u00a0soprattutto\u00a0prima\u00a0dello\u00a0scoppio\u00a0del\u00a0conflitto, \u00e8\u00a0coerente\u00a0con il\u00a0contesto. In\u00a0una\u00a0fase\u00a0di\u00a0incertezza, il\u00a0mercato\u00a0non\u00a0abbandona\u00a0il\u00a0rischio\u00a0in modo\u00a0indiscriminato. Lo\u00a0seleziona. Si\u00a0sposta\u00a0verso\u00a0ci\u00f2\u00a0che\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0leggibile,\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0prevedibile,\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0facile da\u00a0detenere. Ma\u00a0questa\u00a0prevedibilit\u00e0\u00a0viene\u00a0pagata\u00a0a\u00a0caro\u00a0prezzo.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

E qui\u00a0entra\u00a0l\u2019ultimo\u00a0elemento,\u00a0quello\u00a0che\u00a0chiude\u00a0il\u00a0quadro.\u00a0L\u2019Equity\u00a0Risk Premium. I\u00a0dati\u00a0Domodoran\u00a0mostrano\u00a0un ERP\u00a0intorno\u00a0al 4,3-4,4%, in\u00a0crescita\u00a0rispetto ai\u00a0livelli\u00a0di fine 2025,\u00a0quando\u00a0era\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0vicino\u00a0al 4%. Il\u00a0rendimento\u00a0atteso\u00a0complessivo\u00a0sull\u2019equity\u00a0si\u00a0mantiene\u00a0poco sopra l\u20198%, ma con\u00a0una\u00a0traiettoria\u00a0in leggero\u00a0aumento\u00a0del\u00a0premio\u00a0richiesto\u00a0mese dopo mese. Non\u00a0siamo\u00a0in un\u00a0contesto\u00a0di stress\u00a0sistemico, ma il\u00a0mercato\u00a0sta\u00a0gradualmente\u00a0alzando\u00a0l\u2019asticella. Non\u00a0chiede\u00a0un\u00a0premio\u00a0esplosivo\u00a0per il\u00a0rischio, ma\u00a0sta\u00a0diventando\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0selettivo\u00a0su\u00a0ci\u00f2\u00a0che\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0disposto\u00a0a\u00a0pagare. Non \u00e8 il\u00a0rischio\u00a0a\u00a0essere\u00a0esploso. \u00c8 la\u00a0tolleranza\u00a0al\u00a0rischio\u00a0a\u00a0essere\u00a0diminuita.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u00a0questo\u00a0punto, tutti\u00a0i\u00a0pezzi\u00a0si\u00a0incastrano.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gli\u00a0utili\u00a0crescono\u00a0a doppia\u00a0cifra. I\u00a0multipli\u00a0si\u00a0comprimono.\u00a0\u00a0La\u00a0crescita\u00a0si\u00a0concentra. La\u00a0stabilit\u00e0\u00a0viene\u00a0pagata\u00a0a\u00a0premio.\u00a0\u00a0Il\u00a0premio\u00a0per il\u00a0rischio\u00a0sale lentamente. Il\u00a0risultato\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0una\u00a0normalizzazione\u00a0disomogenea. Il tech \u00e8\u00a0stato\u00a0il primo a\u00a0farla. Ha\u00a0perso\u00a0il\u00a0suo\u00a0premio\u00a0mentre\u00a0gli\u00a0utili\u00a0continuavano\u00a0a\u00a0crescere.\u00a0Altri\u00a0settori,\u00a0invece,\u00a0partivano\u00a0gi\u00e0\u00a0da\u00a0valutazioni\u00a0elevate e non\u00a0hanno\u00a0ancora\u00a0attraversato\u00a0lo\u00a0stesso\u00a0processo.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

La\u00a0domanda,\u00a0allora,\u00a0va\u00a0rovesciata.\u00a0\u00a0Non \u00e8 \u201cperch\u00e9\u00a0il P\/E del tech \u00e8\u00a0sceso\u00a0sotto\u00a0quello\u00a0dell\u2019indice?\u201d.\u00a0 \u00c8 \u201cperch\u00e9\u00a0il tech \u00e8 ai\u00a0minimi\u00a0del\u00a0suo\u00a0regime storico (degli\u00a0ultimi\u00a05\u00a0anni)\u2026\u00a0mentre\u00a0il resto del\u00a0mercato\u00a0no?\u201d. E\u00a0soprattutto:\u00a0perch\u00e9\u00a0oggi\u00a0il\u00a0mercato\u00a0paga\u00a0oltre\u00a045 volte\u00a0gli\u00a0utili\u00a0la\u00a0stabilit\u00e0\u2026 e circa 20 volte la\u00a0crescita?\u00a0Perch\u00e9\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0l\u00ec\u00a0che\u00a0si\u00a0nasconde\u00a0la vera\u00a0mappa\u00a0del\u00a0rischio\u00a0dei\u00a0prossimi\u00a0mesi.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

C\u2019\u00e8\u00a0un\u00a0dato\u00a0che, da solo,\u00a0dovrebbe\u00a0fermare\u00a0la\u00a0lettura\u00a0e\u00a0costringere\u00a0ogni\u00a0investitore\u00a0a\u00a0rivedere\u00a0le\u00a0proprie\u00a0convinzioni\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0radicate. Per la prima volta dopo anni di\u00a0egemonia\u00a0incontrastata, il\u00a0settore\u00a0tecnologico\u00a0costa\u00a0meno\u00a0del resto del\u00a0mercato,\u00a0segnando\u00a0uno\u00a0scollamento\u00a0tra\u00a0prezzi\u00a0e\u00a0fondamentali\u00a0senza\u00a0precedenti. Non\u00a0siamo\u00a0di\u00a0fronte\u00a0a\u00a0una\u00a0semplice\u00a0flessione, ma a un\u00a0radicale\u00a0cambio\u00a0di regime\u00a0valutativo\u00a0che\u00a0riscrive\u00a0la\u00a0mappa\u00a0del\u00a0rischio\u00a0per il 2026.\u00a0 Oggi il P\/E\u00a0forward\u00a0del\u00a0settore\u00a0tecnologico\u00a0(ETF XLK) \u00e8\u00a0sceso\u00a0a circa 18,8x,\u00a0scivolando\u00a0sotto\u00a0quello\u00a0dell\u2019indice\u00a0generale (ETF SPY)\u00a0che\u00a0si\u00a0attesta\u00a0a 19,7x. Si\u00a0tratta\u00a0di\u00a0una\u00a0deviazione\u00a0brutale\u00a0rispetto a un regime\u00a0consolidato\u00a0dove,\u00a0negli\u00a0ultimi\u00a0cinque anni, il tech ha\u00a0trattato\u00a0stabilmente\u00a0a\u00a0premio\u00a0con\u00a0una\u00a0media di 26x\u00a0contro\u00a0le 20,7x\u00a0dell\u2019S&P\u00a0500. Questa\u00a0anomalia\u00a0statistica,\u00a0superiore\u00a0alle due\u00a0deviazioni\u00a0standard,\u00a0suggerisce\u00a0che\u00a0la “vetta” del\u00a0mercato\u00a0non \u00e8\u00a0crollata, ma\u00a0si\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0drasticamente\u00a0abbassata.\u00a0 Per\u00a0comprendere\u00a0questa\u00a0metamorfosi,\u00a0bisogna\u00a0guardare\u00a0alla\u00a0violenta\u00a0contrazione\u00a0dei\u00a0multipli\u00a0che\u00a0sta\u00a0oscurando\u00a0la\u00a0tenuta\u00a0degli\u00a0utili. L\u2019S&P 500 ha\u00a0perso\u00a0circa il 7,3% in\u00a0prezzo, ma…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":114,"featured_media":1209799,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1314],"tags":[],"asset_type":[],"class_list":["post-1250447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"Valutazioni Settore Tech: Multipli ai Minimi e Utili | eToro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Il P\/E ntm del settore tecnologico scende sotto la media dell'S&P 500. Scopri perch\u00e9 il mercato riduce i multipli tech e paga a caro prezzo i titoli difensivi.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1250447\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"it_IT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Valutazioni Settore Tech: Multipli ai Minimi e Utili | eToro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Il P\/E ntm del settore tecnologico scende sotto la media dell'S&P 500. 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