{"id":1267835,"date":"2026-05-28T11:43:57","date_gmt":"2026-05-28T08:43:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/?p=1267835"},"modified":"2026-05-28T11:46:05","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T08:46:05","slug":"inflazione-pce-2026-dati-fed-trimmed-mean-warsh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.etoro.com\/it\/news-and-analysis\/market-insights\/inflazione-pce-2026-dati-fed-trimmed-mean-warsh\/","title":{"rendered":"La Federal Reserve di Warsh alla Prova del PCE"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mentre i listini azionari continuano a flirtare con i massimi storici, ignorando i segnali di fumo che si levano dal mercato obbligazionario, il vero cambio di regime potrebbe non essere quello geopolitico che il mercato continua ossessivamente a cercare tra Iran, Golfo e Medio Oriente. Potrebbe essere quello che silenziosamente potrebbe arrivare dalla Federal Reserve. Una Banca Centrale (ma non solo lei) che appare sempre meno compatta sul modo corretto di leggere l\u2019inflazione. Il PCE di oggi arriva in questo contesto. Ma forse il punto non \u00e8 pi\u00f9 soltanto il dato. \u00c8 capire quale inflazione la Fed decider\u00e0 davvero di guardare.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Oggi,\u00a0infatti, \u00e8 il\u00a0giorno\u00a0in cui\u00a0escono\u00a0i\u00a0dati\u00a0PCE di\u00a0aprile, la\u00a0misura\u00a0dell’inflazione\u00a0\u201cpreferita\u00a0dalla\u00a0Federal Reserve\u201d,\u00a0il primo grande\u00a0rilascio\u00a0macroeconomico\u00a0nell’era\u00a0Warsh.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Capire\u00a0cosa\u00a0significa\u00a0questo\u00a0dato\u00a0richiede\u00a0di\u00a0partire\u00a0da\u00a0quello\u00a0che\u00a0gi\u00e0\u00a0sappiamo\u00a0sul\u00a0mese di\u00a0aprile,\u00a0perch\u00e9\u00a0il PCE non\u00a0arriva\u00a0nel\u00a0vuoto. Il Consumer Price Index\u00a0pubblicato\u00a0il 12\u00a0maggio\u00a0aveva\u00a0gi\u00e0\u00a0tracciato\u00a0il\u00a0perimetro\u00a0del\u00a0problema: il CPI headline \u00e8\u00a0salito\u00a0al 3,8%\u00a0annuo, il\u00a0livello\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0alto dal 2023, con\u00a0i\u00a0prezzi\u00a0della\u00a0benzina\u00a0cresciuti\u00a0di quasi il 28%\u00a0nei\u00a0soli due\u00a0mesi\u00a0precedenti, le\u00a0spese\u00a0alimentari\u00a0al\u00a0supermercato\u00a0in\u00a0rialzo\u00a0dello\u00a00,7% in un\u00a0singolo\u00a0mese, il\u00a0massimo\u00a0da quasi quattro anni, e le\u00a0tariffe\u00a0aeree\u00a0salite del 2,8% per\u00a0effetto\u00a0del\u00a0rincaro\u00a0del\u00a0carburante\u00a0per jet. \u00a0Il CPI core,\u00a0quello\u00a0che\u00a0esclude\u00a0alimentari\u00a0ed\u00a0energia,\u00a0si\u00a0era\u00a0fermato\u00a0al 2,8%\u00a0annuo.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Il PCE di\u00a0aprile, la cui\u00a0lettura\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0attesa\u00a0per\u00a0oggi,\u00a0attribuisce\u00a0un peso\u00a0strutturalmente\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0basso\u00a0agli\u00a0affitti\u00a0rispetto al CPI. Il\u00a0modello\u00a0Nowcasting della Federal Reserve di Cleveland,\u00a0che\u00a0aggrega\u00a0i\u00a0dati\u00a0disponibili\u00a0in tempo\u00a0reale, converge\u00a0su\u00a03,83% per\u00a0l’headline\u00a0e 3,31% per il Core. Per\u00a0maggio\u00a0proietta\u00a0un\u00a0ulteriore\u00a0deterioramento: 4,06% headline e 3,36% core. Se le\u00a0proiezioni\u00a0di Cleveland\u00a0si\u00a0confermassero,\u00a0l’inflazione\u00a0PCE headline\u00a0supererebbe\u00a0il 4% per la prima volta\u00a0dall’estate\u00a0del 2023, e lo\u00a0farebbe\u00a0mentre\u00a0il\u00a0tasso\u00a0di\u00a0riferimento\u00a0Fed\u00a0si\u00a0trova\u00a0nel\u00a0range 3,50%-3,75%.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vale la\u00a0pena\u00a0soffermarsi\u00a0sul\u00a0significato\u00a0di\u00a0questo\u00a0livello\u00a0di\u00a0tassi\u00a0in\u00a0rapporto\u00a0all’inflazione. Nel 2022,\u00a0quando\u00a0la Fed\u00a0cominci\u00f2\u00a0la stretta\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0aggressiva\u00a0degli\u00a0ultimi\u00a0decenni, il\u00a0tasso\u00a0era\u00a0ancora\u00a0a zero\u00a0mentre\u00a0il CPI headline\u00a0stava\u00a0avvicinandosi\u00a0al 9%: il\u00a0divario\u00a0era\u00a0abissale, la\u00a0risposta\u00a0era\u00a0urgente. Oggi il\u00a0tasso\u00a0Fed \u00e8\u00a0allineato\u00a0approssimativamente\u00a0all’inflazione, il\u00a0che\u00a0significa\u00a0che\u00a0la\u00a0politica\u00a0monetaria\u00a0non \u00e8\u00a0accomodante\u00a0in senso stretto, ma non \u00e8\u00a0nemmeno\u00a0restrittiva\u00a0nel\u00a0senso classico del\u00a0termine. Una\u00a0seconda\u00a0differenza\u00a0rilevante\u00a0rispetto al 2022 \u00e8\u00a0che\u00a0il\u00a0mercato\u00a0del\u00a0lavoro\u00a0non \u00e8\u00a0strutturalmente\u00a0surriscaldato\u00a0come\u00a0allora. Nel 2022 le\u00a0offerte\u00a0di\u00a0lavoro\u00a0erano\u00a0il doppio\u00a0dei\u00a0disoccupati\u00a0e la\u00a0crescita\u00a0salariale\u00a0stava\u00a0accelerando in modo da\u00a0alimentare\u00a0l’inflazione\u00a0dei\u00a0servizi\u00a0per anni. Oggi\u00a0l’occupazione\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0solida\u00a0ma il\u00a0ritmo\u00a0di\u00a0crescita\u00a0si\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0normalizzato. L’ADP di\u00a0ieri\u00a0ha\u00a0segnato\u00a036.000\u00a0nuovi\u00a0occupati\u00a0nel\u00a0settore\u00a0privato. Un\u00a0mercato\u00a0del\u00a0lavoro\u00a0che\u00a0si\u00a0irrigidisce, in\u00a0combinazione\u00a0con\u00a0un’inflazione\u00a0che\u00a0non\u00a0scende, non\u00a0lascia\u00a0spazio\u00a0politico per\u00a0pensare\u00a0a\u00a0tagli. Ma\u00a0rende\u00a0anche\u00a0difficile\u00a0giustificare\u00a0rialzi\u00a0aggressivi\u00a0in\u00a0un’economia\u00a0gi\u00e0\u00a0colpita\u00a0da uno shock\u00a0energetico\u00a0di origine\u00a0geopolitica. Il\u00a0risultato\u00a0\u00e8 la\u00a0paralisi\u00a0delle\u00a0aspettative\u00a0che\u00a0il CME\u00a0FedWatch\u00a0Tool\u00a0fotografa:\u00a0oltre\u00a0il 99%\u00a0dei\u00a0contratti\u00a0futures\u00a0sconta\u00a0un\u00a0tasso\u00a0invariato\u00a0al meeting\u00a0di\u00a0giugno, ma la\u00a0distribuzione\u00a0attesa\u00a0per il 9\u00a0dicembre\u00a02026 ha\u00a0spostato\u00a0il peso verso un\u00a0rialzo\u00a0di\u00a0almeno\u00a0un quarto di punto, con\u00a0una\u00a0quota\u00a0crescente\u00a0che\u00a0considera\u00a0possibile\u00a0mezzo punto.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Il\u00a0sondaggio\u00a0di\u00a0maggio\u00a0della Bank of America\u00a0offre\u00a0forse\u00a0la\u00a0sintesi\u00a0pi\u00f9\u00a0netta\u00a0del\u00a0cambiamento\u00a0di regime\u00a0percepito\u00a0dagli\u00a0investitori\u00a0istituzionali. Ad\u00a0aprile\u00a0il\u00a0conflitto\u00a0geopolitico\u00a0era il primo\u00a0tail\u00a0risk citato\u00a0dai\u00a0gestori, al 44%. A\u00a0maggio\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0sceso\u00a0al 20%. Al\u00a0suo\u00a0posto\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0salita\u00a0la\u00a0seconda\u00a0ondata\u00a0di\u00a0inflazione, passata dal 26% al 40% in un solo mese,\u00a0diventando\u00a0il\u00a0rischio\u00a0numero\u00a0uno. La\u00a0sequenza\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0istruttiva: prima\u00a0i\u00a0fondi\u00a0temevano\u00a0la\u00a0guerra, poi\u00a0hanno\u00a0cominciato\u00a0a\u00a0temere\u00a0ci\u00f2\u00a0che\u00a0la\u00a0guerra\u00a0sta\u00a0facendo\u00a0ai\u00a0prezzi. Il\u00a0salto\u00a0di\u00a0quattordici\u00a0punti\u00a0percentuali\u00a0in\u00a0trenta\u00a0giorni\u00a0non\u00a0si\u00a0spiega\u00a0solo con il PCE di\u00a0oggi. Si\u00a0spiega\u00a0con la\u00a0percezione\u00a0che\u00a0il\u00a0meccanismo\u00a0di\u00a0trasmissione\u00a0dall’energia\u00a0al resto\u00a0dell’economia.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

La\u00a0questione\u00a0centrale \u00e8 proprio\u00a0questa, e\u00a0ruota\u00a0attorno\u00a0al\u00a0confronto\u00a0tra\u00a0due curve. Il\u00a0Trimmed\u00a0Mean PCE della Dallas Fed\u00a0si\u00a0attestava\u00a0a\u00a0marzo\u00a0al 2,4%,\u00a0contro\u00a0il 3,2% del Core PCE. Quasi\u00a0sessantaquattro\u00a0punti\u00a0base di\u00a0distanza.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Il\u00a0metodo\u00a0trimmed\u00a0esclude\u00a0le\u00a0variazioni\u00a0estreme\u00a0di\u00a0prezzo\u00a0nelle\u00a0singole\u00a0componenti,\u00a0sia\u00a0verso\u00a0l’alto\u00a0che\u00a0verso il basso, prima di\u00a0calcolare\u00a0la media\u00a0ponderata. In\u00a0questo\u00a0modo\u00a0isola\u00a0il\u00a0cosiddetto\u00a0segnale\u00a0di\u00a0fondo\u00a0dall’interferenza\u00a0degli\u00a0outlier. Quando il\u00a0Trimmed\u00a0Mean\u00a0corre\u00a0stabilmente\u00a0sotto il Core di\u00a0questa\u00a0misura, il\u00a0messaggio\u00a0statistico\u00a0\u00e8\u00a0che\u00a0una\u00a0porzione\u00a0rilevante\u00a0dell’inflazione\u00a0misurata\u00a0dal Core\u00a0deriva\u00a0da\u00a0variazioni\u00a0concentrate in poche\u00a0categorie, e\u00a0non da\u00a0un\u00a0rialzo\u00a0generalizzato\u00a0dei\u00a0prezzi. Kevin Warsh,\u00a0gi\u00e0\u00a0durante\u00a0l’audizione\u00a0di\u00a0conferma\u00a0alla\u00a0presidenza\u00a0della Fed, ha\u00a0indicato\u00a0esplicitamente\u00a0le\u00a0medie\u00a0trimmed\u00a0come\u00a0strumento\u00a0preferibile\u00a0per\u00a0distinguere\u00a0i\u00a0movimenti\u00a0una\u00a0tantum\u00a0dai\u00a0trend\u00a0strutturali. Se il\u00a0dato\u00a0di\u00a0oggi\u00a0confermasse\u00a0il Core PCE al 3,3% con il\u00a0Trimmed\u00a0Mean\u00a0ancora\u00a0vicino\u00a0al 2,4%, Warsh\u00a0avrebbe\u00a0in mano\u00a0i\u00a0numeri per\u00a0sostenere\u00a0che\u00a0il\u00a0sistema\u00a0dei\u00a0prezzi\u00a0non \u00e8\u00a0strutturalmente\u00a0fuori\u00a0controllo.
\nSe\u00a0invece\u00a0il\u00a0divario\u00a0si\u00a0restringesse\u00a0perch\u00e9\u00a0le\u00a0pressioni\u00a0si\u00a0stanno\u00a0diffondendo\u00a0oltre\u00a0le\u00a0componenti\u00a0solitamente\u00a0tagliate\u00a0dal\u00a0metodo, la\u00a0narrativa\u00a0dell’inflazione\u00a0“gestibile\u00a0perch\u00e9\u00a0concentrata”\u00a0perderebbe\u00a0la\u00a0sua\u00a0base\u00a0empirica.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Il dato di oggi non chiuder\u00e0 nessuno dei dibattiti aperti. Lo alimenter\u00e0. E il fatto che gli investitori che cercheranno una risposta oggettiva nei numeri del Bureau of Economic Analysis rischino di trovarsi davanti a qualcosa di ambiguo \u00e8 la parte che conta davvero. Un PCE al 3,8% con Trimmed Mean al 2,4% pu\u00f2 essere letto come conferma che l’inflazione \u00e8 concentrata e la Fed pu\u00f2 aspettare. Un PCE al 3,8% con Trimmed Mean al 2,7% \u00e8 un segnale diverso. La risposta oggettiva, in questo ciclo, semplicemente non esiste.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mentre i listini azionari continuano a flirtare con i massimi storici, ignorando i segnali di fumo che si levano dal mercato obbligazionario, il vero cambio di regime potrebbe non essere quello geopolitico che il mercato continua ossessivamente a cercare tra Iran, Golfo e Medio Oriente. Potrebbe essere quello che silenziosamente potrebbe arrivare dalla Federal Reserve.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":114,"featured_media":1209799,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1314],"tags":[],"asset_type":[],"class_list":["post-1267835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"Dati PCE 2026: Analisi Inflazione e Strategia Fed | eToro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oggi i dati PCE di aprile nell'era Warsh. 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