𝗔 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆
Imagine you own a share worth €100.
The company then pays you a €5 dividend. Once the share trades without the right to receive that dividend, its price should theoretically fall to roughly €95, assuming nothing else changes.
You now have:
* A share... Vis flere Oversett
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐝-𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐚 $𝟏.𝟒 𝐓𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐞
Following SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, Elon Musk’s personal net worth has rocketed to an unprecedented $1.35 trillion.
To put this into perspective, let's look at the global landscape.
If Musk's paper... Vis flere Oversett
𝐍𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐯𝐬. 𝐆𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐲: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐛𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐝 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐈 𝐁𝐨𝐨𝐦
$NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) is now worth roughly $𝟓.𝟒 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧.
Germany’s annual GDP is around $𝟓 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧.
One company, built around chips and AI infrastructure, is being valued higher than... Vis flere Oversett
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘀 𝗮 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵?
Let’s say someone offers to buy a single share of a company for $100.
Someone else who owns this share is willing to accept this $100 in exchange for the share.
We now have supply and demand.
If the company has 100 shares, the market cap (theoretical... Vis flere Oversett
𝗨𝗦–𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘁: 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗗𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀
I know we said we were gonna solve this during COVID and make everything a Tesla but unfortunately this matters because oil still apparently matters.
If US-Iran escalates and the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted,... Vis flere Oversett
𝗜𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹?
I’m genuinely curious how people think about this.
My answer is no and here's why:
In 2023, some of the best resourced funds in the world were short $NVDA. They had the models, the analysts, the conviction. The valuation looked stretched. The thesis... Vis flere Oversett
$SPX500 / $SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF)
𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐰𝐡𝐨 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐢𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬
Over long periods, the S&P 500 has been remarkably consistent.
Since 1928, total returns look roughly like this:
- 9.9% nominal annualised
- 6.7% after inflation
-... Vis flere Oversett
𝐔𝐍𝐏𝐎𝐏𝐔𝐋𝐀𝐑 𝐎𝐏𝐈𝐍𝐈𝐎𝐍:
𝐃𝐀𝐘 𝐓𝐑𝐀𝐃𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐅𝐄𝐄𝐋𝐒 𝐒𝐌𝐀𝐑𝐓 𝐔𝐍𝐓𝐈𝐋 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐀𝐓𝐇 𝐒𝐇𝐎𝐖𝐒 𝐔𝐏
Let’s be honest for a moment.
If you shorten the time horizon enough, market outcomes become dominated by randomness.
That doesn’t mean skill doesn’t exist.
It means skill only... Vis flere Oversett
𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗼 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗸: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗚𝗼𝘁 𝗛𝗮𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 (𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁)
Most people think $NVO (Novo-Nordisk A/S SPONS ADR) crashed this year because Wegovy/Ozempic went generic.
That’s wrong.
In the U.S., semaglutide is STILL patent-protected... Vis flere Oversett
Back to $65 - $75
100.00%
Up to $55 - $65
100.00%
Stays at $45 - $55
100.00%
Not sure
100.00%
3
3
0
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