Joey Diekstra @JoeyDiekstra: "𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫 March turned..."

Netherlands

𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫 March turned into a difficult month for global equities, with the Iran war driving a sharp repricing across assets. Oil moved higher, inflation expectations followed, and equities sold off as rate cut expectations were pushed out. For my portfolio, this has been a disastrous month and the first that clearly broke the winning streak, bringing year to date performance back to roughly 0 to minus 5%. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 📉 Energy has been the main driver. Rising oil prices are feeding directly into inflation concerns and forcing a reset in rate expectations. Equities have reacted accordingly, with growth assets hit the hardest as yields moved higher. Interestingly, this has not been a clean risk off move. Safe havens have been less supportive, suggesting this is more about inflation repricing than pure fear. Some large institutions are now flagging stagflation risks if the conflict persists, while others see markets as technically stretched to the downside. 𝐌𝐲 𝐕𝐢𝐞𝐰 My view, and it is debatable, is that equities are currently trading oil more than fundamentals. As long as energy remains elevated, the backdrop for equities stays challenging. At the same time, the speed of the move suggests positioning is much lighter, which could support sharp rebounds on any de-escalation. 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 The path of oil and the direction of the conflict remain key. Any signs of stabilization could trigger a relief rally, while further escalation would likely keep pressure on equities. $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $DJ30 $VIX

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

3 Mentioned

SPX500

SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)

NSDQ100

NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry)

DJ30

DJ30 Index (Non Expiry)

Strictly Necessary Cookies

Performance Cookies

Functional Cookies

Targeting Cookies