August: +8.11%, and where I think this goes
August finished at +8.11%. July was +9.00%. The year is now +8.58%.
Two good months do not make a thesis, so let me put them somewhere useful instead of celebrating them. Over twelve months I am +7.10% against +18.60% for the S&P 500. I am not going to... Show More
The SaaS apocalypse trade — and why we are on the other side of it
The story goes like this. AI makes software cheap to build. Agents replace seats. Subscription businesses get hollowed out. Multiples have already been marked down to match.
I think the story confuses what is being commoditised. And... Show More
Two green months, and I did nothing to earn them
July: +9.00%. August so far: +7.17%. Year to date: +7.63%.
Three months ago that number was negative. June alone was -9.55%.
Between those two facts, nothing major changed. I did not rotate. I did not add leverage. I did not find a new "briliant"... Show More
Crypto — where I stand, and where I trim
BTC just broke out of a six-week range on the largest short squeeze since at least 2021. Meanwhile, in the real economy: US federal debt crossed $40 trillion this week, interest on it is now the government’s second-biggest expense after Social Security, and... Show More
Deep dive: Adobe — the turnaround several of you told me not to touch
When I posted my Nike starter on Monday, several of you replied with a list of turnarounds that had burned you. Adobe was on almost every list.
Fair enough. I own it — 14.12 units at an average of 260.96, roughly 6% of my portfolio,... Show More
The difference between conviction and stubbornness
Yesterday I posted a small starter position in Nike. The replies were not a chorus of agreement.
One of you said Nike is not a quality business any more. Another listed every turnaround that had burned him - Adobe, Accenture, Puma. Another bought it... Show More
Opened a starter position in $NKE (NIKE) 👟
My philosophy hasn't changed: buy quality brands when sentiment is against them, size small, and give the thesis years - not weeks.
Nike is the classic out-of-favour compounder. The turnaround is messy and may stay messy for a few more quarters, but the... Show More
July: +8,62 %. And with that, the year is back in green.
Only barely — +0,08 % YTD — but anyone who sat through June knows what that number cost. Software carried the month, and eggs of all things carried the rest. Not a combination you’ll find in many portfolios. That’s rather the point: I buy businesses,... Show More
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