📊 Germany IFO: momentum is deteriorating again
We analyze the IFO in terms of dynamics:
current conditions (x-axis)
expectations (y-axis)
👉 In theory, the cycle follows a clockwise rotation:
recovery → expansion → slowdown → contraction
Since 2021:
• post-Covid: strong recovery
• 2022–early 2023:... Show More
📈 AI: we are now in a speculative bubble
John Kenneth Galbraith described the recurring pattern behind all bubbles:
👉 Innovation – a technological breakthrough
👉 Early profits – the breakthrough delivers initial gains
👉 A convincing narrative – the public becomes convinced of its structural importance
👉... Show More
🏦 Will European banks match the upside surprises seen in U.S. banks?
Recent U.S. bank earnings have been strong, with most major banks beating analysts’ expectations.
This performance has been largely supported by trading activity and dealmaking.
👉 Yet, bank stocks have not reacted positively and... Show More
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Over 2,000 new followers joined us in the past month — a growth of +350%!
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@DayByDayEquities... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
🏦 European banks: still supported by rates?
Interest rates remain elevated in Europe, supporting bank margins.
At the same time, economic uncertainty is increasing.
👉 This creates a mixed environment:
• positive for net interest income
• but with rising attention on credit risk
From a technical... Show More
🌍 Energy transition: acceleration continues
TotalEnergies announced a $2.2bn joint venture with Masdar to expand renewable energy capacity across Asia earlier this month. Masdar is a UAE-based renewable energy company specializing in large-scale solar, wind, and clean energy investments worldwide.
👉... Show More
🌍 IMF: should we worry about a recession risk?
The IMF has recently lowered its global growth forecasts.
The reason: a more uncertain environment (geopolitical tensions, potential energy price shocks).
👉 In a downside scenario, the IMF highlights:
a significant slowdown in global growth (around... Show More
The IFO survey released this morning showed a sharp decline in expectations, reflecting the impact of the conflict with Iran. After several months of hesitation to enter the expansion quadrant, our indicator has now moved directly into the slowdown quadrant.
However, the signal should be interpreted... Show More
The European banking sector represents a key source of concern in Europe. It has formed a double head-and-shoulders pattern, with the head of the larger formation itself composed of a smaller head-and-shoulders. This structure reflects the intensity of the selling pressure.
We doubt that the trend will... Show More
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DayByDay is the leading European independent research bureau for behavioural analysis since 2000.
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Sun Jun 07 2026 10:49:04 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)