After the conflict in the Middle East is frozen, I’m hoping for a powerful rally in stocks. Sentiment is extremely bleak right now, exactly as it should be before a strong impulse move.
I hope the markets start recovering right after the quarterly expiration on Friday, March 20.
$SPX500$SPY (State... Show More
Last year, two major statistical signals were triggered: the DeGraaf Breadth Thrust (May 12) and the Zweig Breadth Thrust (April 24). Each of them on its own — and especially both together — has strong predictive power. The implications of these signals tend to persist for at least a year after they... Show More
Gold has decoupled from rates.
In the past, rising real rates in the U.S. put pressure on gold prices. Since 2022, that relationship has broken down.
Now gold is rallying even with elevated real yields. It’s no longer just an inflation hedge — it’s a different kind of asset altogether.
We’re living... Show More
The S&P 500 finished the first five trading days of the year in positive territory, gaining 1.11% over that period. Historically, this has been one of the most reliable early-year signals for the market. In such cases, the index’s average annual return was +14.2%, and in 84% of instances the year... Show More
The rise of gold and silver is a marker of a restructuring of the financial system.
The same thing happened in the 1970s. Bretton Woods—the post-war monetary order established in 1944 — was dismantled in 1971. After that, a new system took shape over the course of a decade, accompanied by a powerful... Show More
When you've loaded up on stocks and all that's left is to sit and wait, you start seeing confirmation of your thesis everywhere. What else would you expect? Classic cognitive bias. That's what it's called, right?
Cool chart from FinTwit user Seth Golden.
When the Fed cuts rates during... Show More
The table shows data for the trading week of November 11–17.
Hedge funds turned out to be the biggest buyers. Institutional investors were also actively adding risk. Retail, however, went deep into the red again — and quite aggressively. They were the largest net sellers of the week. A classic setup:... Show More
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