Mayyyy
Syria
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This Year’s Performance. Risk Score Considers Last 7D.
Tobias Kjelstad Hoesoeien @tobhoso
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On the picture you can see next week's earnings calendar aswell as the most important data releases. Earnings season is coming to an end, with most of the large cap companies already reported. It's been another tremendous earnings season in terms of companies reporting strong results and growth. Next week we'll see if retail companies such as <a href="/markets/m" class="e-link">$M (Macys Inc)</a> <a href="/markets/hd" class="e-link">$HD (Home Depot Inc)</a> <a href="/markets/jcp" class="e-link">$JCP (JC Penney Co Inc)</a> <a href="/markets/wmt" class="e-link">$WMT (Wal-Mart)</a> <a href="/markets/jwn" class="e-link">$JWN (Nordstrom Inc)</a> can keep it up. These reports is often seen as a measurement for consumer sentiment and spending, and how the economy is doing. I wrote in a post earlier that I think we'll see some continuation of the pullback we saw late last week going into next week. Preferably we would see a slow grind down to 2818-2800 for the <a href="/markets/spx500" class="e-link">$SPX500</a> , but as long as we hold 2.790 and the uptrendline from the lows in April, we should consider the uptrend still intact. It's also important to remember that due to summer lull and thin liquidity, moves tend to get exaggerated both ways. I'm sitting on a good amount of cash, and ready to buy when the time is right. <a href="/markets/nsdq100" class="e-link">$NSDQ100</a> <a href="/markets/spx500" class="e-link">$SPX500</a> <a href="/markets/dj30" class="e-link">$DJ30</a> <a href="/markets/dia" class="e-link">$DIA</a> <a href="/markets/spy" class="e-link">$SPY</a> <a href="/markets/qqq" class="e-link">$QQQ</a> ... Show More
@foxtrot02
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$OIL Logically it should down, due to Donald’s tweet. So be ready for a huge up. Don’t search for logic ... Show More
@TomStorm
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$GOLD any explanation for the spike, experts? ... Show More
@MarketUpdates
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Earnings reports to be released today after market close: $CRM (Salesforce.com Inc) $HPQ (Hewlett Packard) Shares earnings release before markets open (30/05/2018): $KORS (Michael Kors Holdings Limited) ... Show More
Henri Gustave D Caron @Couguar
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Hi folks! I have been playing around with some new techniques that lean more towards active forms of investing, and I ended up developing a new model which I like to describe as Trailing Average. I mentioned already that it is very hard to time the markets exactly right, and by consequence predict major jumps in stock prices. Instead, I wondered if I would be able to deduct something from stock prices AFTER they went through either a major increase or decrease. Likewise, that would allow me to monitor sudden and hefty price changes, and make a prediction on how that stock price would behave in the near future. The results look extremely promising. I have been scrutinising historical stock data of the past two years and looking for all stock jumps over 4%, after which I have been looking at the course of that same stock price for the 30 days following the price jump. Finally I have calculated the probability of having either profit or loss for each of the following days. Said otherwise: If a specific stock increases by 4% or more, what is the probability of having either profit or loss for each of the 30 consecutive days? The reason why I think this is a very interesting measure, is because now it allows me to use those significant jumps in stock prices, as a marker, a warning signal to open a position on a stock and know after how many days I ideally close that position in order to benefit a maximum return. I’ll illustrate with the example below: For the stock <a href="/markets/cybr" class="e-link">$CYBR (CyberArk)</a>, I have found 8 days (= observations) during the past 2 years for which the stock closed with a 4% increase compared to its previous day’s closing price. If I would open a buy position on that stock the following day, ideally I would close it after 15 days because a that point I will have the highest probability of having a profit, which is an average return of 5,81% (after 15 days), with a standard deviation of 4,32%, resulting in a probability of 91,10% for profit (assuming a normal distribution). I have summarised the same information for a couple of other stocks (read full article on <a href="https://etoro.tw/2H1eide" class="e-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">etoro.tw/2H1eide</a> Besides <a href="/markets/cybr" class="e-link">$CYBR</a>, other stocks like <a href="/markets/mu" class="e-link">$MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)</a>, <a href="/markets/nflx" class="e-link">$NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)</a> and <a href="/markets/shop" class="e-link">$SHOP (Shopify Inc.)</a> are interesting stocks for which to open a buy position the day after an increase of minimum 4%, and ideally close that position after 27, 29 and 28 days respectively. Stocks like <a href="/markets/syna" class="e-link">$SYNA (Synaptics Inc.)</a> and $IMPV have a profit probability of less than 50%, indicating there is a higher probability of ending with a loss rather than profit after 1, respectively 13 days. As I said, those results look very promising. My target is to start including these insights in my investment decisions very soon and, because of the short-term nature of these investment decision, apply a small (2x) leverage on those positions to further increase the potential returns. For more information, please visit my website www.investmenttales.com! Cheers! ... Show More
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