A week ago the market gave a September rate rise about a 40 percent chance. Today it is around 57 percent.
Most people still believe the Fed's next move is a cut. That is no longer the base case.
Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole on Friday and said inflation has not meaningfully slowed. The 10... Show More
@copiers
August is done. Here is the month, and the year so far.
August: up 7.31 percent. My best August in seven years.
Year to date: up 14.21 percent.
But here is the number I actually want you to see.
Only four of the eight months this year have been positive.
January was nearly flat. February... Show More
$MRVL (Marvell Technology Group Ltd) reported last night. Revenue beat. Earnings beat. Guidance raised.
The stock fell 10 percent today.
Here is what sits underneath that.
Last week Marvell announced a custom chip deal with $GOOG (Alphabet) worth up to 120 billion dollars over six years. The stock... Show More
The Fed today, in plain words.
For two years the argument was about when rates get cut. That argument is finished. Today it is about whether they go up.
Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole this morning. Inflation is still above the 2 percent target, the better summer readings do not prove the trend has... Show More
Fact number three. $LLY (Eli Lilly & Co).
Everyone knows these weight loss drugs are changing waistlines. What surprised me is where else they show up.
About one in five American households now has someone taking one. In January 2025 it was one in eleven.
When people start, grocery spending drops... Show More
Fact number two, and you asked for this one. $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.).
Memory has always been the most brutal cycle in tech. Prices boom, everyone adds capacity, prices collapse. It has happened again and again.
Here is the part most people miss about this one.
The high bandwidth memory sitting... Show More
Starting something new today.
A few times a week I'll share one fact about a company I actually hold, not the headline numbers, the thing underneath that explains why the business is hard to replace.
Starting with $ASML (ASML Holding NV).
There is exactly one company on earth that makes EUV lithography... Show More
Dear @copiers
📈 $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) +15% today
Same company. Same profits. What changed?
Last week the market’s fear was simple: 84.6% gross margins can’t last. Memory is cyclical. This is a peak.
Today management answered it, not with a bigger number, but with a smaller one.
Their long-term... Show More
Hello My @copiers
📉 Best quarter in company history. Stock down ~40% from its high.
That’s $SNDK (Sandisk Corp/DE) right now
Revenue +372% year over year. Gross margin 84.6%, it was 26.4% a year ago. Earnings beat comfortably.
None of it mattered. The market decided the profits look like a peak,... Show More
Dear @copiers
Don't worry!
There is no growth journey without some speed pumps and some dips! The strategy isn't broken. The financial performance of the assets we are invested in is better than ever with amazing quarterly results! What's happening is some panic combined with asset reallocation... Show More
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