JOSE ANGEL ZABALEGUI LABARTA
JOSE ANGEL ZABALEGUI LABARTA
Spain
1mo
$BTCUSD A STRATEGIC BUY (Part 3) How to Confirm a Major Market Bottom: The Power of the FLD Cross (Hurst Cycles) In technical analysis, catching the end of a bearish cycle is one of the greatest challenges. Those of us who apply J.M. Hurst's cycle theory know that the market doesn't move chaotically, but is driven by the sum of synchronized cyclical waves. But how can we mathematically confirm that the worst is over and a major bottom is in? The answer lies in the FLD (Future Line of Demarcation). What is the FLD? It is a predictive tool that consists of an exact replica of the price chart, shifted forward in time by exactly half the length of the nominal cycle being analyzed. For example, if we are tracking a 40-day cycle, the FLD projects the current price 20 days ahead. The FLD Cross: Bottom Confirmation During a correction, price remains below the cycle's FLD. The critical signal, and the definitive indication that we have marked a bottom (or temporal trough), occurs when price crosses upward through a descending FLD. But to know that this is not just a temporary bounce, but a major long-term bottom, we must look for these 3 confirmations: The "Nest-of-Lows" Effect: According to Hurst's principle of synchronicity, major bottoms occur when multiple cycles (short, medium, and long) converge and bottom at the same time. We will see price not only cross the FLD of a short cycle upward, but also gain momentum to sequentially break the FLDs of larger cycles (like the 20 or 40-week cycles). Price Projection: The FLD cross not only confirms that the bearish cycle has ended, but it also gives us a clear target. The price distance from the absolute low of the bottom to the FLD breakout point is projected upward from that exact cross. This geometric calculation gives us the first target of the new bullish impulse. Underlying Trend Validation: A strong, decisive cross confirms that the bearish pressure from longer cycles has been exhausted. Whether trading Bitcoin, indices, or commodities, this breakout indicates that the expansion phase has begun and the broader cycle is supporting the move. Don't try to guess the exact bottom by trying to catch a falling knife. Hurst's analysis teaches us to wait for geometric confirmation. When price authoritatively breaks the FLD from below, you have the technical evidence that a new cycle has been born, and the risk of taking long positions is drastically reduced. In the image, a weekly chart positioning a new important low formation in early July. Fist sing is the cross of a 80D cycle with a first target in 73K. ------------------------------------ eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading history presented is less than 5 complete years and may not suffice as basis for investment decision. Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk -------------------------------------
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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