Roberto Anzellotti @IlMatematico: "JULY WITH ATH AND THE..."

Italy

JULY WITH ATH AND THE CHALLENGES OF AUGUST Our usual monthly update for July, featuring numerous all-time highs, and considerations on what could await us in August. July was a rather 'simple' month, marked by numerous new highs and growth that at one point reached 6% since the beginning of the month, but was "ruined" by the last four days of the month, which wiped out almost all of the month's growth. In the end, the +2.48% we brought home at the end of the month has a bitter taste, given that the haul could have been much better. But let's move on to the numbers and see how July went: #️⃣ @IlMatematico : +2.48% #️⃣ Nasdaq100: +2.37% #️⃣ SPX500: +2.27% #️⃣ Bitcoin: +8.66% As you may recall, we've been in defensive mode for a few months now. Faced with a riskier we've decided to lower our risk profile, adopting a more cautious stance until it becomes clearer whether and how the global economy is changing. From this perspective, outperforming the $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 is certainly gratifying, even if our portfolio hasn't been able to capitalize on the momentum coming from the crypto world. As I mentioned before, on July 26th we were up 6% compared to the beginning of the month, but in the last 4 days of July there was a collapse which, among other things, particularly affected some of the companies we own. But let's see how 2025 as a whole has gone so far: PERFORMANCES 1 JAN-31 JUL 2025: 🟡 IlMatematico : +8.43% 🟡 Nasdaq100: +10.38% 🟡 SPX500: +7.73% 🟡 Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap (by Coinmarketcap): +18.40% Since the beginning of the year, we have outperformed the SPX500, but worse than the NSDQ100 and the cryptocurrency markets. I'm not complaining, but it's clear that reducing our risk level, which also brought my RISK SCORE to its current value of 3, has consequently impacted performance. Despite all this, this month we also had new all-time highs that brought total gains to +1255% since we started with our portfolio, with a CAGR of over 30%. HISTORICAL PERFORMANCES FROM 2017 TO 31 JUL 2025 ✅ @IlMatematico : +1255% (CAGR = 30.64%) ✅ $NSDQ100 (NASDAQ100 Index (Non Expiry)) : +313% ✅ $SPX500 (SPX500 Index (Non Expiry)) : +178% As I write this, it's August 1st. Starting Monday, liquidity will drop significantly, and like every other year, it won't take much to trigger sudden crashes and surges. As an insurance against this eventuality, I have already opened a position on VIX.AUG25 in recent days (perhaps too small) which, despite a limited cost (the statistical average tells us 10-20% of the position), will allow us a small coverage in case of panic attacks similar to those of August 2024. It should be noted that as I write, the $EURUSD (EUR/USD) exchange rate has risen by 1.3% (a much higher value than usual), confirming the volatility that has already manifested itself several times this week. As of August, based on key macroeconomic indicators, If we rely on numbers the dominant economic regime appears to be deflation in the US and stagflation in Europe, Canada, and Asia (source quantaste.com) . WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE COMING WEEKS? For the second half of 2025, leading analysts expect rather volatile months, which will nevertheless yield new highs before Christmas. Stock market growth will also be supported by the global money supply, which is expected to grow significantly almost everywhere. This suggests two other things: -> that the cryptocurrency rally will most likely continue into the second half of the year, -> that sooner or later this money flooding the markets will spill over into the real world, increasing inflation across the globe. I am @IlMatematico, and through my algorithms I try to extract value from the markets. Add me to your watchlist to stay updated on all my news and all my movements on $BTC, $SPX500 and $NSDQ100 !

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.