Wesley Nolte
United Kingdom
๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—จ๐—ฝ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ (๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฎ ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฐ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ) ๐™๐™๐™š ๐™๐™š๐™™ ๐™™๐™š๐™ก๐™ž๐™ซ๐™š๐™ง๐™š๐™™ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™ง๐™ค๐™ฉ๐™–๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™˜๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™ช๐™š๐™™ The Fed cut rates on Wednesday, but the market's response told the real story. The Dow hit an all-time high while $NSDQ100 closed down after Oracle's earnings miss reignited AI spending concerns. The rotation from growth into value is clear. The Russell 2000 ( $IWM (Ishares Russell 2000 ETF) ) hit a record high and is up 8.82% over the past month versus just 3% for $SPX500 . Small caps are finally getting their moment. ๐™Š๐™ง๐™–๐™˜๐™ก๐™š'๐™จ ๐™ข๐™ž๐™จ๐™จ ๐™ฅ๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐˜ผ๐™„ ๐™จ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ฃ๐™™๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™—๐™–๐™˜๐™  ๐™ž๐™ฃ ๐™ฉ๐™๐™š ๐™จ๐™ฅ๐™ค๐™ฉ๐™ก๐™ž๐™œ๐™๐™ฉ $ORCL (Oracle Corporation) reported fiscal Q2 results that spooked the market. Revenue missed, but the real issue was CapEx: $ 12 billion in the quarter versus $ 8.25 billion expected. Full-year guidance jumped to $ 50 billion from $ 35 billion just three months ago. The stock dropped 11% and dragged AI names down with it. The sell-off reminded the market to ask: "Is this amount of AI infrastructure spending justifiable?" ๐™‡๐™ช๐™ก๐™ช๐™ก๐™š๐™ข๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™—๐™š๐™–๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™—๐™ช๐™ฉ ๐™˜๐™–๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ž๐™ก๐™ก ๐™ฃ๐™š๐™š๐™™๐™š๐™™ $LULU (Lululemon Athletica Inc) reported Q3 earnings with revenue and earnings beating estimates. The stock is up 10-11% pre-market but remains down 52% from its January high. The structural issues are real: Americas comparable sales fell 5%, gross margin compressed 290 basis points, and tariffs are expected to hit $ 240 million in gross profit. CEO Calvin McDonald is also stepping down in January. But the valuation reset is dramatic. The stock trades at 12-13x forward earnings vs a historical 30 - 40x, and international growth (particularly China, up 46% in Q3) is strong. The tariff impact is likely priced in, and a leadership change could bring fresh energy. ๐˜พ๐™ค๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™š๐™ง ๐™๐™ž๐™ฉ๐™จ ๐™ง๐™š๐™˜๐™ค๐™ง๐™™ ๐™๐™ž๐™œ๐™๐™จ ๐™ค๐™ฃ ๐™™๐™ค๐™ก๐™ก๐™–๐™ง ๐™ฌ๐™š๐™–๐™ ๐™ฃ๐™š๐™จ๐™จ ๐™–๐™ฃ๐™™ ๐™จ๐™ช๐™ฅ๐™ฅ๐™ก๐™ฎ ๐™จ๐™ฆ๐™ช๐™š๐™š๐™ฏ๐™š Copper prices are near all-time highs. Two forces are driving the rally: a weaker dollar and critical supply disruptions at two of the world's largest mines, including $FCX (Freeport-McMoRan Inc) 's Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange have dropped 42% this year, signalling a tight market. FCX stock has rebounded 15.4% over the past month as copper prices climbed. I think it has more to run. ๐™’๐™๐™–๐™ฉ ๐™ฉ๐™ค ๐™ ๐™š๐™š๐™ฅ ๐™–๐™ฃ ๐™š๐™ฎ๐™š ๐™ค๐™ฃ The rotation from growth to value is real. Small caps are outperforming, while Oracle reminded us that AI spending returns are uncertain. I'm staying invested but watching this shift closely โ€“ when market leadership changes this sharply, it pays to have exposure beyond mega-cap tech.
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