Dimitris Plessas
Dimitris Plessas
Greece
1mo
๐— ๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ณ | ๐—ง๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐˜† ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฎ ๐— ๐—ฎ๐˜† Asia mixed. Nikkei +0.5%, Shanghai -0.3%, Hang Seng -0.2%, KOSPI -2.3% on profit-taking in semis after a vertical run in memory names. Europe is heavy. Stoxx 600 -0.6%, DAX -1.1%, CAC -0.6%, FTSE -0.4%. Oil shock and a UK political crisis are doing the damage. ๐Ÿฏ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ 1. Oil rips on Hormuz risk. Brent +3.5% to $107.84, WTI +3.8% to $101.83 after Trump called the Iran ceasefire proposal "garbage" and Aramco flagged ~100m barrels per week of lost throughput. Energy is the only hedge bid into a tape that doesn't want to own anything else: $XOM, $CVX, $SHEL.L, $BP.L all working. 2. UK political crisis hits the banks. Starmer is fighting calls to resign from 80+ Labour MPs after a junior minister quit Tuesday morning; Eurasia puts 35% odds on a forced leadership election by September. $NWG.L -4.7%, $LLOY.L -4.3%, $BARC.L -4.1%. Sterling and gilts both wobbling, FTSE relatively cushioned by oil weighting. 3. Micron blows the doors off. $MU cleared $800B market cap, +37% on the week; Deutsche Bank lifted target to $1,000 from $550. CEO says key customers are getting only 50-66% of their HBM orders filled. The memory complex is supply-constrained for years, not quarters, and AI capex isn't slowing. ๐—”๐—น๐˜€๐—ผ ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด Mag 7 capex split keeps widening: $GOOG up 23% YTD as the only winner, while $META, $MSFT, $AMZN all under pressure on guidance for >$190B annual AI spend each. $NVDA still flat since late April while $AVGO and the rest of the semis tape rip; the >$4T cap is its own gravity now. Trump-Xi sit down in Beijing this week, first state visit since 2017. Gold -0.4% to $4,698 as DXY +0.3% to 98.26 and EUR/USD slips to 1.17. ๐—จ๐—ฆ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ-๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ป S&P futures -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.8%, Dow -0.1%. 10Y closed yesterday at 4.41% (cash market shut today). Risk-off lean: energy bid, defensives outperforming, mega-cap tech and rate-sensitives offered. Two macro shocks at once, oil and UK politics, into a tape already nervous about whether AI capex pays back. The setup favours energy and selective memory; everything else is hostage to whether Hormuz reopens or Starmer survives the week. If you carry leverage, this is a good day to trim it. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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