Amin Harirchian
📈 Increasing My Position in NIO❗️ Long-Term Potential with a Realistic View I’ve increased my position in $NIO (Nio Inc.-ADR) , both in the US and Hong Kong market ( $9866.HK (NIO Inc Class A) ) . My price targets remain unchanged at $ 8 in the US and HKD 60 in Hong Kong, aligned with the latest outlook from US Tiger Securities, who reiterated their Buy rating after a solid Q3 performance. I have reviewed the analysis and Tiger highlights three key drivers behind NIO’s recovery story: - Meaningful margin improvement across the product portfolio - Stronger operational efficiency after cost restructuring - Sustained sales momentum across NIO’s three brands NIO continues to build a unique competitive advantage in charging infrastructure. The company now operates: - 3,200+ Power Swap Stations - Hundreds of fast-charging stations - Presence along most major expressways in China - New international sites, including the UAE This ecosystem is one of the most advanced in the global EV industry and creates strong customer lock-in, especially in urban markets and high-mileage segments. ⚠️ Short-Term Risks At the same time, there are visible challenges in the months ahead: - Lower visibility on China’s EV incentives increases policy risk through 2026 - NIO’s Q4 delivery guidance (120–125k) fell short of consensus expectations (~150k), suggesting flat December volume - Macquarie downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral, cutting targets on both listings - Weakening demand for ONVO, NIO’s mass-market brand, as government subsidies phase out So, it’s important to be realistic and we may see pressure on volumes and sentiment in the coming months, especially around policy news and price competition. But it may give us the best opportunity to accumulate positions for long run. 🎯 My Outlook Despite the near-term volatility, I believe the core story remains intact, driven by: 🔴 a differentiated battery swap ecosystem 🔵 premium brand positioning ⚫️ cost/efficiency improvements 🟢 expansion into new global markets 🟡 a broader multi-brand strategy (premium + mass market) NIO is not just another EV assembler, it is building an infrastructure moat that is very difficult to replicate at scale. If the company continues to expand margins and broaden its customer base, I see the potential for re-rating in near future, with more meaningful upside into 2026 as policy clarity improves.😉 As always, this is not financial advice, just my personal view based on current data and analysis. Best regards, A.H $TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) $NSDQ100 $XPEV (XPeng Inc ADR)