Roberto Anzellotti
$NSDQ100 -6.5% 🆚 MY PORTFOLIO +1.32%: JULY CHANGED THE SCRIPT The most interesting figure from JULY is not our portfolio’s +1.32% return. It is how that result was achieved: the trade that had dominated 2026 suddenly stalled. 📊 JULY 2026 @IlMatematico: +1.32% $SPX500: +0.001% $NSDQ100: -6.50% MSCI World ($SWDA.L): -1.45% $BTC: +7.20% My strategy TARGET-2035 therefore ended the month in positive territory, outperforming both its primary benchmark, the S&P 500, and its secondary benchmark, the MSCI World. However, July was not simply a “risk-off” month. It was primarily a month of market rotation and reassessment of expectations. The most crowded areas of the market (AI, semiconductors and momentum stocks) experienced a sharp correction that hit leveraged traders particularly hard. Big Tech earnings triggered sharply different market reactions, while the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Rising oil prices and bond yields also brought inflation back to the centre of investors’ attention. In this environment, TARGET-2035’s diversified core-satellite structure worked well during the month. This does not mean that it will always work this way, nor does it erase the underperformance accumulated during the first part of the year. 📅 YEAR TO DATE @IlMatematico: +5.86% $SPX500: +9.39% $NSDQ100: +12.00% July represents a step in the right direction and helped narrow the gap accumulated during the first part of the year. However, the recovery relative to the main US indices is not yet complete. 📈 HISTORICAL TRACK RECORD 1 January 2017 – 31 July 2026 @IlMatematico: +1,394% → approximately 32.6% CAGR $SPX500: +228% $NSDQ100: +403% The historical track record describes the journey that has brought me this far, but it should not be interpreted as an indication of TARGET-2035’s future returns. In previous years, the portfolio also went through periods with a higher risk profile than the one adopted under the new strategy. 🌤️ WHAT COMES NEXT? July was my seventh positive July out of ten. In my track record, August ended in positive territory five times and in negative territory four times. September, by contrast, was positive only twice out of nine years — although those were the two most recent Septembers. The seasonality of US midterm election years also suggests some caution. Historically, the period leading up to the elections has often been weaker and more volatile, while recoveries have occurred more frequently during the autumn and in the months following the vote. It is a statistic, not a forecast. I therefore expect August and September to be challenging. However, I will not build the portfolio around an attempt to predict the calendar. I will continue to assess fundamentals, valuations and risk-reward profiles. The objective remains unchanged: to outperform the $SPX500 over time, while accepting that this cannot happen every month and measuring results against transparent criteria. My job is not to predict every market move. It is to follow a disciplined process, explain when that process changes and take responsibility for the results. Which risk do you think will matter most over the next two months: AI valuations, interest rates or geopolitics? I am @IlMatematico and through Rules, Discipline and Time, I work every day to build a portfolio aimed at long-term financial serenity, both for myself and for those who choose to copy me. Follow me to stay updated on my investment activity across $SPX500, $NSDQ100 and the crypto space!
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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