Achim Graff
Over the past two weeks, our portfolio performance has declined by –13.4%. $Natgas pushing up today strongly and going vs the refunds today in minus. (Until Sunday in plus). Since the last update, we added positions in $FET and $CRO . Our overall results this year are now negative , largely due to continued weakness in altcoins and $BTC . Fetch.ai in particular has been a major drag on performance, having dropped –61% over the past month, making it one of the primary contributors to the overall portfolio decline. Bitcoin has also been weak, falling –10.5% over the last 30 days, which has added additional downward pressure. The $NSDQ100 has been trading around the 26,000 level for about a week, but it has not managed to break through it with conviction. I continue to view the Nasdaq as significantly overvalued based on historical valuation metrics: Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is currently 7.66, compared to a 20-year average of 3.22. (Picture below) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 39.70, while the 20-year average is just 24.12. For comparison, major European equity markets are trading at much more moderate valuations, with P/E ratios in the range of 17–19, which highlights the relative overvaluation of the U.S. tech-heavy index.
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