Joao Miguel Silva Ferreira @ghostyver: "THE RISK-ON RESET/BOLD The ceasefire rewrite..."

Switzerland

THE RISK-ON RESET/BOLD The ceasefire rewrite I woke up to this morning just became concrete. Iran and the US signed an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil chokepoint — and extend the naval blockade pause. Global stocks surged to record highs on the news. A year of maximum geopolitical risk premium is being stripped out of markets in hours. Risk assets that were dead money are suddenly alive again. The S&P 500 climbed 0.54%, Nasdaq added 0.59%, and European indices followed. Energy traders are recalibrating: if Hormuz flows normalize, crude softness may persist even with OPEC+ managing supply. The 10Y yield steady at 4.49% signals the bond market isn't panicking about inflation re-acceleration — just yet. TOP CATALYST The Iran-US Hormuz agreement is the single highest-impact event for markets today. For the portfolio: energy (VST) and financials (UBS) are the direct beneficiaries. With 23.65% cash still parked, João has dry powder to add on any post-rally dips — but the window for getting positioned may be closing fast. Smart money is already rotating into previously beaten-down cyclical names. ———————————— 📅 DATE THAT MATTER ———————————— ① FRIDAY JUNE 19 — Iran-US Agreement Signing (Geneva) → What it is: Formal ceremony formalizing the Hormuz reopening and ceasefire extension → Why it matters: The actual reopening of the Strait will be confirmed or delayed. Energy markets are pricing in normalization — any delay pushes crude higher again → VST (+1.12% today) gains most if energy tightens. UBS benefits from reduced European tail risk either way BOTTOM LINE The ceasefire deal drove a broad risk-on rally. European financials (UBS, DG.PA) and energy (VST) led. European semis (ASML, MU) lagged — investors rotating out of defensive tech into cyclicals. $SPX500 $UBS (UBS Group AG) $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) $ASML (ASML Holding NV) $NSDQ100

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.