Lin Liu
Lin Liu
Austria
11mo
July Update Bull markets don’t end suddenly. At the start of July, I expected the market to stay strong, and that is exactly what happened. The market kept going up without stopping. We have been hitting new all-time highs one after another, and so has our portfolio. This is a key feature of a strong market. One sign of strength is that the market stayed above the 20-day moving average for 62 days in a row. That is the longest streak since 1997. The record is 101 days from 1964. This shows the market has good momentum. What happens after a streak like this? Usually, the market keeps going higher. When the market is strong for this long, momentum pushes it further. Of course, this streak will not last forever. But this rally is not just about a few big tech stocks. Many different sectors are doing well. For example, the equal-weighted S&P 500 just hit a new high. Also, 10 percent of S&P 500 stocks recently hit 52-week highs, the most since March. Breadth is good. Tons of different sectors are moving up, not just a few. On top of that, earnings reports are looking good so far. About 40 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings. Around 72 percent beat earnings estimates, 77 percent beat revenue, and 60 percent beat both. That is strong. And the market has been rewarding companies that beat estimates greatly. Now, we are entering the busiest part of earnings season. Of course, there are still potential risks: Fed policy, inflation, high valuations, tariffs, and global politics could all cause the market to shift. Still, this is not a reason to be bearish. Bull markets do not crash without warning. Until we see those signs, it's key to take advantage of the current bull market.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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