Nicholas Pak
Edited
Hi all, For the past few months I have been researching about unconventional data that is not talked in mainstream media. Here are the few data points I believe that will cause a technical recession and the severity of recession would be dependent on how each government reacts to inflation. 1. Inflation is not slowing down. Inflation % is a simple formula of taking this months inflation VS last year's inflation. Back in July'21 VS July'20, the inflation rate started to creep up already hence the base is already higher as compared to July'22 VS July'21. You don't use Jun'22 inflation vs Jul'22 inflation and say that inflation % is slowing down, this should not be the case and the news are overshadowing the actual inflation problem. 2. US Consumer credit is creeping up. Inflation is no joke. People on the ground have to suffer and consumers are taking on credit to pay for credit. Only time will tell whether these consumers are able to pay back credit.... or you'll have an implosion of deferred payments revenue loss from banks/BNPLs. 3. US Vehicle auction houses are now flooded with used cars in their stockyard. You must be wondering what does this data point have anything to do with recession right? Well, it has everything to do with recession. If you cant pay your bills, which liability would you get rid of first? 4. China's housing market. The China government is blocking many protesters from protesting against giants like Evergrande for citizens asking back money after Evergrande declared that they cannot pay back debt. Not only that, these news are not covered in mainstream medias as well, indicating that the Chinese government is hiding the truth of the housing crisis. This is what happens when you take too much money from banks to build houses and finance MORE money with money that isn't in the system to build EVEN MORE houses. Sounds familiar? Well... 2008-2009. 5. Ukraine & Russia war isn't stopping. This affects everyone. You may not realize it but Ukraine and Russia are top 5 producers of $WHEAT in the world. When supply is constrained and demand is maintained, prices of Wheat goes up. Couple this with inflation, we'll soon see bread prices doubling by end of this year. 6. Oil price is maintaining at its levels (above 90) for a very long period. This means only 1 thing, prices continues to go up and everyone have no choice but to buy more expensive $OIL . This affects everyone too. Companies are not stupid to absorb any of the added cost coming especially from Logistics & Transportation. They will pass it on to the consumers to maintain profitability. And when oil drops, company maintain their price because...well.... to maintain profit margins. With these 6 points, I stand my ground that a recession is coming. A technical one, but depending on how governments react, it will be prolonged. For this, I have reduced my risk and continued to stock up on $SQQQ to hedge my portfolio and managed to reduced my risk average score to 5! www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-05/us-consumer-credit-jumps-more-than-40-billion-second-most-ever $NSDQ100 $SPX500
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