Zoran Blazevic
Edited
๐—ง๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—น๐—ฎ โ€“ ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ ๐—”๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜†๐˜€๐˜๐˜€ ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜ ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐—ค๐Ÿฐ ๐—˜๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด๐˜€ / ๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ? TESLA, TESLA, TESLAโ€ฆ we can hear these words a lot in the media following stock markets, we can see it in our feeds on Etoro. Lot of bulls, lot of bears, saying to the moon or to the ground. This post is not about stock price, but about Revenue and Net Income What do analysts say about these figures? In a preparation of the earnings call which is scheduled for the Wednesday 27.01. I would like to showcase some of the numbers like Revenue and Net income, in order to show how analysts are viewing companies upcoming earnings report. For me, upcoming earnings report is rather interesting as it marks end of the year, where in financial terms it is expected that company will end with profit. Financial ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ is ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐—น๐˜† ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ moment for Tesla, as this could be the FIRST fiscal year, in which the company has made profit, from start to finish. As a reminder, although in previous year, some quarters had positive result, and company ended with positive cashflow, the Year 2019 ended with the loss of 862 million or -4.92 per share (according to the company financial records). As we know that Tesla had all three quarter of this year profitable, we can assume that the year will end in profit. ๐—ช๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜†๐˜€๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ? Data source is from Yahoo Finance (16.1.2021) At first letโ€™s review period from ๐—ข๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ โ€“ ๐——๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ โ€“ ๐—ค๐Ÿฐ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฌ Number of analysts providing expectation for Q4 2020: 15 Average ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ค๐Ÿฐ: 10.26bn (LOW 9bn, High 11.12bn) In comparison to same period last year, analysts are expecting Revenue growth of 38.9%. Current Average ๐—˜๐—ฃ๐—ฆ ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ค๐Ÿฐ: 0.95 EPS estimate 30 days ago: 0.88 Last year EPS was: 0.41 How did analyst option change for Q4 2020? In last 30 days 9 / 15 analysts have ๐—œ๐—ก๐—–๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—”๐—ฆ๐—˜๐—— their EPS estimate. In last 30 days analysts have increased their ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐˜† ๐Ÿณ.๐Ÿต๐Ÿฑ%. Historical review shows that in same period last year, TSLA beat analystsโ€™ estimates by 20%. Is company capable to do the same again? ๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—น๐˜† ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐˜„ 2020 โ€“ ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜†๐˜€๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—น๐—ฎโ€™๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ. Tesla Fiscal year follows calendar year. Starts 1.1 and ends 31.12 Average ๐—ฅ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ* estimate ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ: 31.1bn (LOW 28.07bn, HIGH 32.77bn) On the yearly basis analysts estimate that company will have revenue 26.8% higher then previous year. Current Average ๐—˜๐—ฃ๐—ฆ* estimate ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐˜†๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ: 2.34 Earnings estimate EPS 30 days ago: 2.29 Based on this we can easily conclude that analysts expect that company will end the year with profit. Even bears have to give a thumbs up for this to the company. As nobody believed that this is possible. EV company making profit. How did analyst opinion change for 2020 in last 30days? In last 30 days 10 / 22 analysts have ๐—œ๐—ก๐—–๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—”๐—ฆ๐—˜๐—— their EPS estimate. While at the same time 1/22 have ๐—ฅ๐—˜๐——๐—จ๐—–๐—˜๐—— their estimates for EPS. In last 30 days analysts have in average increased their estimate by 2.2%. Please be aware, beating estimates DOES NOT necessarily mean that company stock will grow. Price could correct shortly after, but it could also rise. ------- I do hold Tesla, I do think price is high, growth was way too much, even if price drops 30%, I have no problem with that. Would be good, if price would consolidate a bit, and stabilize, so company and management can go to make cars and less focus is put on stock price. Next stage is important for company, as many things are necessary to be done, many questions open: -- ramping up the factories -- where is Solar business -- where is New model S --what about insurance (as finance guy i am curious about this) ---> company should focus on this vs stock price. On the other side, if price go over 900, some of my positions will be closed based on TP in place. *Revenue estimate is provided by 32 Analysts, while for EPS 22 analysts have submitted their opinion.
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