apxt505
United Kingdom
The market is in holding mode as the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meets for two days with a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. My prediction is a "dovish hold": no change in rates, but happy noises about strong underlying growth with inflation declining. The happy noises will include some statement about how the only thing threatening a soft landing for the US economy is an "over hasty" set of interest rate cuts. Those who believe in a "political Fed" with believe that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is, behind the scenes, twisting Powell's arm to deliver a lot of juice into the US economy from Spring to Summer to enhance Biden's election prospects. In the meantime the S&P500 keeps posting highs. Tactically, strong moves yesterday in the portfolio from $CDLX (Cardlytics Inc) (Cardlytics) up +24.36% yestereday and from $SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc) – the gift that keeps on giving. SuperMicroComputer was up +4.54% yesterday and +10.36% overnight. On the other side of the balance sheet, the guess that the "bottom is in" on China keeps running up against the weakness of the Chinese government's rescue/stimulus package. That is no knock on the excellent education company $TAL (TAL Education Group ADR) but it was dragged down by the whole market -8.94% yesterday. I am keeping the faith with TAL for the long run alongside local energy monopoly $02688.HK (ENN Energy Holdings Ltd) ENN energy. What does this mean for my portfolio? Nothing: I am still loaded up on interest rate sensitive stocks with a view to being positioned for rate cuts in the second quarter of 2024. None of the above is investment advice and you must do your own research before taking any investment decision. I am minus 1.01% year to date in 2024. For calendar year 2023 +20.84% check it out www.etoro.com/people/apxt505/portfolio