As I have already told you on several occasions, this year 2022 will be profitable, but not easy.
First of all, I truly believe that this year's winning combination is a mix of value that was hit harder during the pandemic (epicenter stocks) and high-quality growth, selecting some of the FAANMG heaven. And this is how we have now made our portfolio.
During the "violent falls" of the last weeks, many stocks such as $CVX (Chevron)$PXD (Pioneer Natural Resources Company)$BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway Inc)$XLF$ADM (Archer-Daniels-Midland Co) PAG and others selected for value and cyclical strategies have done very well. As for big ones like MSFT, FB or PYPL they are suffering something more but certainly not as much as super leveraged companies. I hope to cushion these losses with hedging on the Nasdaq.
The rise in rates, the inflationary crisis, and other risks are going to bring a mined scenario probably until April; and the market will test our resolve. But despite the fact that last week's European inflation and American labor data were not good at all and even pointed to a recession (inflation rising, economy slowing down), I think it is early to draw those conclusions. I continue to maintain my goldilocks scenario for the time being.
In such volatile situations where the market says and denies our thesis every week, your best strategy is the monthly DCA. It is my advice.
In addition, something that characterizes our portfolio is the hedging by buying SQQQ . To cover myself I rely on an algorithmic system; and sometimes it can fail and give me false signals. That's what happened during the month of December, and that's why we are doing worse than the SP500 right now. But the premium you pay to avoid a major scare is this.
I am fully confident that we will catch up with the SP500 again and that we will outperfom it in 2022.
Thus, the first week of 2022 begins as expected, with no surprises. With noise about interest rates, doubts about a possible recession (in which I still do not believe) and with a clear rotation towards industry, consumption, energy and epicenter stocks with a value vision.
Have a good week,
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Thanks David for these insights. I particularly agree with you on hedging and I personally use a separate Schwab account and options. This works well until you get a longer term rising market, when hedging can become tiresome and expensive.... Show More