Lets look at the real shitstorm en route for the UK after Brexit. There is a number of glaring problems everybody seems to be missing.
1. Over 52% of goods imported into the UK are from Europe. Why is this significant? Well my business sells to the UK...after Dec 31st our costs to export to the UK went up. We now pay extra for paperwork fee, for customs clearance with our courier, close to 20% of the value of our goods is now tariffed into the UK and extra hours are required simply to keep up with all the paperwork required. So what do we do? Well our prices to the UK are now raised meaning 52% of goods imported into the UK economy will be higher simply because it costs anyone from the EU more to export to UK.
2. Companies exporting from within the UK to Europe. Well guess what...UK companies must do everything from their end. Paperwork, additional costs of couriers and now a duty payment on the other end. They face the same pain.
So whats happening on the ground already? Well our UK suppliers are already beginning to tell us that they will not be offering shipping to our warehouse. ie we have to sort courier, paperwork and pay tariff costs for our courier to now collect from their warehouse. They are now providing exw (EX Works pricing). Meaning we dont want to ship...you sort it. So what are our options now. Well it is not feasable for most companies to have costs increase, time needed to produce paperwork along with Duty costs on receiving shipments. So already we are looking to source our products from Germany & France where there is no trade barriers. And our UK suppliers are already discussing other European headquarters they can ship from to alleviate this problem and essentially continue trading with customers.
Brexit will present huge problems for UK exporters to Europe, Uk importers from Europe & any company who exports or imports to UK. There is no getting away from the huge ensuing shitstorm the UK economy is facing because of this.
My opinions or likely scenario?
1. UK economy GDP will massively contract over coming months & years. Its already happening in terms of the business and economic situations facing millions of business'. Regardless of the narrative you are reading about the positives for the UK.
2. German/French economy will thrive. Why? I believe they will see this a huge opportunity to attract business and trade similar to how the Irish Goverment lowered Corporation Tax to 12% years ago that saw hundreds of multinationals set up in the country.
Thoughts on the implications this will have throughout the world?
$GER30$EWG$IUKP.L$UK100$UKCM.L (UK Commercial Property Trust Ltd)$SPY$EURGBP... Show More