Jack Darnes
Nice post here by @MarkCrean-Allen So bullish on $DISCA (Discovery Inc) !
Mark Crean-Allen
𝗧𝗩 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 📼 📺 𝐌𝐲 𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬: 📌 In my household skipping through channels is a thing of the past (unless the Wifi is down again)! Instead, we now swop from Netflix, to Prime to Disney, that’s of the ones we pay directly for. Personally, I don’t believe I will ever cancel them as they each offer me different options. There is no real 1 stop shop for me. The next one I need to cross off my list is HBO, that way I can watch all of the game of thrones on tap. I will be waiting for the merger of $DISCA (Discovery Inc) and $T (AT&T Inc) (They are spinning off their HBO and Warner media) before purchasing this one. As you can see from the image at the bottom, Netflix has the largest global share of market, then Prime, followed by Disney and HULU (Disney own 30% share). This makes perfect sense as they are the 3 I personally pay for. Then followed by Apple, HBO (currently owned by AT&T) then Paramount (Owned by VIAC). Discovery+ will probably be hidden within the other category. Although not directly linked with TV streaming, Youtube ($GOOG (Alphabet)) has started to make original content and could be a huge future player in the space. 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 🎬 From 2016, Netflix had a huge market share but today it is not as big due to extra competition. This does not mean they don’t have as much growth or users, just more companies offer similar products or services. But as we can see from this trend, the more that time goes on. The more competition arises. However, it does not mean that you cannot increase the share of the market, as we can see from Amazons Prime, market share increased from 8% to 12% in 5 years despite the extra competition. The next steps for some companies are to merge together. The first being, DISCA and AT&T with Warner media and HBO. I personally expect this combination to take the market by storm once combined and give some real competition to the likes of the big fish like Netflix and Prime. This also opens up other potential mergers or buy outs due to the increased competition. If and when the above merger goes through, it opens the question of when the next merger or acquisition will come from. Could it be from $VIAC (ViacomCBS Inc.) or another player in the game. Netflix could always purchase or take a large stake in anyone of the above (but not limited to) to keep up with fresh content. The overall trend with TV streaming services revenue has grown since 2018 to 2021 by over 100%. It is expected to continue that revenue trend upwards, however at a slower growth rate. With that taken into consideration, what ever direction you look at Netflix will have to look at different revenues to grow cash ad continue growth. But when compared toa company just getting into the streaming space like $VIAC or $DISCA with a platform already established you could expect this growth trend to be much larger than $NFLX. 𝗡𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗣/𝗘 (𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻 / 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁) A popular method to price a stock, especially in companies that are well established. It is also the most commonly used. Lower = More attractive generally. $AMZN (Amazon) 100.18x / 74.85x $AAPL (Apple) 13.87x / 21.33x $DIS (Walt Disney) 44.44x / 33.79x $DISCA 9.31x / 8.65x $NFLX (Netflix, Inc.) 81.34x / 35.03x $T 10.05x / 8.3x $VIAC 9.79x / 9.38x $ROKU (Roku Inc) -724.65x / 155x $GOOG 28.65x / 23.98x 𝗘𝗩 / 𝗘𝗕𝗜𝗧𝗗𝗔 (𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻 / 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 The rule of thumb with this metric is that the lower the multiple the more attractive a stock might look. Each company will trade slightly different or average at a different number. For example, Amazon invests allot of its cash for future growth and does not issue a dividend, where as a company like AT&T pays a dividend so in theory would lack as much future growth. Hence the much lower multiple. $AMZN 23.11x / 20.28x $AAPL 27.82x / 28.37x $DIS 18.69x / 20.98x $DISCA 8.35x / 7.68x $NFLX 36.88x / 24.79x $T 7.61x / 7.60x $VIAC 9.37x / 8.21x $ROKU 192.91x / 47.39x $GOOG 16.11x / 14.06x 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 📢 This is just a very brief insight into how I may start to look at an investment. As you can see from my investments $DISCA is my largest position. I am very bullish with if the merger goes through or even if the merger falls through. Once I have identified a potential value stock I will dig deeper into that company. Mainly dig for reasons NOT to invest. I will compare balance sheets, future valuation and news. All of the above is not investment advice, it is only my opinion and my take. I own $DISCA $AMZN $T $GOOG . Due to the fact I have done my due diligence on these companies gives me faith during times of uncertainty, however I will always continue to actively manage throughout to minimize volatility as much as I can. As I didn’t dig into many of the companies too much, feel free to post your own analyses bellow. Or where you see the next stage of innovation !? 💾 💽 📲
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