Hi everyone,
Markets this week have been weirdly calm. It’s like they’ve tuned everything out and decided to chill.
Even with geopolitical tensions and oil prices taking a nosedive, the market kept climbing. The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, the Nasdaq kept cruising thanks to AI names, and small caps even showed some life. Investors saw the noise and kind of just… ignored it.
Part of the reason is that rate cut talk is starting to creep back in. The drop in oil took some pressure off inflation, and the Fed’s recent tone gave traders just enough hope that a cut in September might be back on the table. Yields dipped, and risk appetite came back a bit.
That said, there’s still a lot out there to keep an eye on. Everything from global tensions to stretched prices in some parts of the market. But for now, Wall Street feels like it’s in vacation mode. Relaxed, a little detached, and not in any rush to react.
As for me, I’m watching the $SPX500 CAPE ratio creep back toward 38. If this pace holds, we’re heading right back to the 2021 peak I flagged before. The rebound’s been strong, no doubt, but if large-cap valuations stretch that far again, I see it as a solid window to rotate a bit.
I have trimmed some positions where things felt a little overheated and added a hedge for the coming months. We’re currently sitting 75.2% long in equity, factoring in hedges and bonds. This feels about right for now.
It's interesting to see the market betting that the biggest gains will still come from the biggest companies over the next several years. There’s some irony to that, given they’re already large, mature businesses. Small caps are still lagging behind this year, and I’ve scaled down my large-cap exposure even more.
As for portfolio news: $ROKU (Roku Inc) and $AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) just announced a big ad partnership. Amazon’s ad platform (DSP) now has exclusive access to Roku’s massive logged-in streaming audience, reaching around 80M U.S. households.
For Roku, it looks like a strong move. It boosts ad reach, improves targeting, and makes the platform more attractive to big advertisers. Early tests showed better performance and less ad fatigue, which means more value without higher spend. Full launch is expected by Q4 2025. Solid win for Roku.
Overall, I think we’re in a good spot. Whether the market moves up, down, or just drifts sideways in the next couple of months, there’s room to benefit either way.
As always, thank you for copying.... Show More
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Fri Nov 14 2025 23:22:39 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time)
