Georgios Fatouros @GeorgeFatouros: "📊 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 –..."

Greece

📊 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 A difficult week in an increasingly difficult month. Here's a look at where we stand and what's driving it. 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 MTD March: 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 ~𝟰%, vs ~𝟱.𝟱% 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦&𝗣 𝟱𝟬𝟬. On a 𝗬𝗧𝗗 basis we remain 𝘂𝗽 +𝟭𝟯.𝟱%, though in absolute terms a drawdown is a drawdown. 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗽 The Fed held rates at 𝟯.𝟱𝟬–𝟯.𝟳𝟱% at its March meeting, extending the pause. The dot plot still signals one cut in 2026, but individual submissions are shifting toward fewer, reflecting a more cautious stance. Sticky inflation, now made worse by an energy shock. $OIL crude has been trading above $100, with spikes driven by attacks on Iranian and Qatari energy infrastructure and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Besides an oil specifics, it's a direct inflation impulse that puts the Fed in an uncomfortable position: respond to the energy-driven price shock, or cushion a softening growth outlook. The stagflation narrative is gaining traction, and markets are pricing it accordingly by underweighting equities, overweighting defensives and cash, selective longs in energy. 𝗟𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 The February jobs report added another layer of complexity to the macro picture. Nonfarm payrolls printed at 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝟵𝟮,𝟬𝟬𝟬 (the first monthly decline since the pandemic) while unemployment ticked up to 𝟰.𝟰%, a near four-year high. Job losses were broad-based across healthcare, tech, transport, and manufacturing. This matters for the Fed's calculus. A softening labor market would normally open the door for rate cuts but with inflation being pushed higher by the oil shock, policy space is constrained. The longer-term dynamic worth watching: if AI-linked layoffs broaden through 2026, labor market cooling could accelerate in ways that are structurally different from typical cyclical slowdowns, making the Fed's dual mandate increasingly difficult to navigate. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗦𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 $AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd) is the main outlier right now , 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 ~𝟭𝟴% since inclusion last rebalance. The thesis has been under pressure from rising real yields, a strengthening dollar, and a repricing of Fed easing expectations as the oil spike reignited inflation concerns. Gold's prior "real yield compression" narrative has taken a hit. On the other side, $MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) remains 𝗮 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝘁 +𝟮𝟴% overall, though it pulled back ~10% this week in a classic sell-the-news move following a 20%+ pre-earnings run. The underlying print was strong: record gross margins of 74.9%, operating margins at 69%, and a 30% dividend hike. The AI memory supercycle thesis remains intact. Our AI system is continuously fed with the latest macro and stock-specific data and will adapt positioning accordingly at the next rebalance. Intra-month volatility of this kind cannot be avoided, particularly in the current regime. — @GeorgeFatouros

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.

4 Mentioned

OIL

AEM

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd

Micron Technology, Inc.

GeorgeFatouros

Georgios Fatouros

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