Miska Repo @mick_repo: "2025 Performance YTD @mick_repo: +46.86% MSCI World..."

Italy

2025 Performance YTD @mick_repo: +46.86% MSCI World Index: +20.21% S&P 500: +16.30% Good month overall since the last update. UK insurers and asset managers (LGEN, MNG) and homebuilders (PSN) provided reassuring updates. In contrast, the consumer goods sector (DGE, PEP, PVH) is undergoing stress, with companies announcing major restructuring, product cuts, and warning of "softness" and issues with tariffs in key markets like China and the US. Here’s what’s been going on with some of the portfolio companies since the last update. Let’s start with the largest position in our current portfolio, $LGEN.L (Legal & General) . They published their Trading Update in November, and management reaffirmed its full-year guidance, stating it expects to deliver core operating EPS growth at the upper end of its 6-9% target range. The solvency position also remains robust. In short, the company continues with consistent performance. No fireworks or rapid growth, but steady and consistent. The second largest position in our current portfolio is the UK housebuilder $PSN.L (Persimmon) . They published their Q3 Trading Statement and reported a 15% increase in private forward sales to £2.09bn, while pricing remained robust (+1.5%). Management noted some market "softening" since the summer due to macro uncertainty in the UK, but kept full-year volume expectations on track (~11k homes). Persimmon is currently outperforming the gloomier narrative surrounding UK housing. The ability to hold pricing and grow the order book despite budget uncertainty suggests good underlying demand for their lower-price-point homes. We are currently up by about 20% with PSN since we bought it a few months ago, and in case the UK housing market improves, there is a decent chance for more upside. Fifth largest position in the portfolio is currently $SDLF.L (Standard Life PLC) . Their Stress Test Results were published towards the end of November, and the results from the stress test showed a robust capital position with a coverage ratio of 155% (well within their 140-180% target). This is reassuring since there have been some doubts about their capacity to keep growing their already high dividend. $PVH (PVH Corp) beat EPS estimates and revenue forecasts with their Q3 earnings. However, gross margins fell and inventory rose, and guidance for the future was conservative due to tariff risks and global volatility. Margin compression seems to be the potential red flag at the moment. Even though Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein are selling, their margins are under pressure. The tariff headwinds continue being a risk for 2026, even though I expect things to settle on that front over time. Also, roughly 70% of PVH’s sales come from outside of the USA, and are not impacted by the US tariffs. We are currently up by about 20% since we bought PVH in June, and I think they have potential upside and limited downside risk also going into 2026. On the more negative side Atkore published their Q4 Earnings a couple of weeks ago. Sales fell 5%, and the company swung to a net loss due to asset impairments and FY26 outlook was cautious. At the same time Board announced it has expanded the scope of its previously announced review of strategic alternatives to include assets outside of its core electrical infrastructure portfolio. As part of this expanded review, the Board and management team now consider a broader range of alternatives to maximize shareholder value, including, among other things, a potential sale or merger of the whole company. Since the Q4 earnings update, they already announced the sale of its Tectron mechanical tube product line and associated manufacturing facility, so they are making progress on the strategy front. Atkore’s business performance has been a disappointment (to say the least), but I will likely see the outcome of the strategic review, since it can be a potential upside catalyst at this stage. Finally, an interesting piece of news came out from PepsiCo this week. They announced an agreement with activist investor Elliott Investment Management. Plans include reducing the US product line by 20% (simplification) and layoffs to cut costs. They also updated FY2026 revenue growth guidance to a modest 2-4%. This looks to be a "clearing the decks" moment. The reduced guidance is a reset of expectations, and the activist involvement usually signals an aggressive focus on shareholder value (buybacks/efficiency) moving forward. It will be interesting to see the progress and speed of execution of the plan. As always, upwards and onwards. Profitable trades to everyone. Cheers, Mick $SPX500

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.