Marko Grecs @emge2116: "🔷 𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 𝙐𝙋𝘿𝘼𝙏𝙀: 𝙅𝙐𝙇𝙔 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱..."

Slovenia

🔷 𝙋𝙊𝙍𝙏𝙁𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙊 𝙐𝙋𝘿𝘼𝙏𝙀: 𝙅𝙐𝙇𝙔 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 🔷 The U.S. economy looks solid on the surface—stocks are up, unemployment is low, and AI continues to fuel a tech boom. As for Trump’s sweeping 15% tariffs on the EU and Japan, markets barely flinched. Why? Investors are betting this is all posturing. They’ve seen this movie before: bold tariff headlines that later get watered down or delayed. Wall Street is leaning into the so-called “TACO trade”— the belief that tariffs won’t stick and tech will keep ripping. ➤ 𝘽𝙪𝙩 𝙗𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙝 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮, 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡: 〰 Tariffs could still raise costs across sectors 〰 Global retaliation isn’t off the table 〰 Political pressure on the Fed is mounting 〰 Inflation could make a comeback ➤ 𝙎𝙤, 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙨𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙩 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝙙𝙤 𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙣𝙤𝙬? This isn’t the time to follow the crowd, but to get sharp. We should be ready for surprises in both rates and trade policy. Key is in staying diversified and keeping your portfolio protected. ➤ 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 〰 Changes Over the past few months, some of the proportions within the portfolio have drifted slightly out of their ideal balance. Even so, I don’t see any need for corrections at this point. U.S., China, and European equities continue to hold their relative weights, as do commodity miners and producers. Commodities have gained 2.5%, while cryptos are up 2%. On the other hand, emerging market equities and ETFs have decreased by 1% and bond ETFs have declined 3% in relative allocation. The portfolio remains defensively oriented - with the exception of crypto. 〰 Crypto I’m still optimistic about digital assets and see potential for strong performance over the coming months. Based on my analysis of historical $BTC halving cycles and 4-year patterns, I estimate that this cycle’s peak should occur between March and September 2025. While this timing suggests the peak might come somewhat later than usual, I expect it no later than the end of 2025, though it may occur in the first half of 2026. Typically, crypto markets weaken during the summer months, especially between June and September. However, this year has been different: since June 1st, Bitcoin has gained about 15%, fueled by new buyers entering the market. With this emerging bull momentum, I believe that we’ll see a mania stage in crypto during the latter half of the year. That said, once peak arrives, I expect a swift downturn. I’m monitoring the situation closely every day to identify the right exit points before it’s too late. 〰 Emerging markets and nuclear energy The newly added ETFs focused on promising emerging markets are performing well – and I believe they’ll continue to do so long-term. India still remains the most compelling in my view, and some Chinese names are finally showing signs of recovery. Another long-term bet is also paying off: $CCJ (Cameco Corp) is up an impressive 130% in just three months. Its Chinese counterpart, $1816.HK (CGN Power Co Ltd), has gained 25% in the same period, which is also a solid result. I’m keeping both in the portfolio for the long haul for sure. Over the next decade, I believe nuclear energy will play a major role in global energy markets – and the growth potential for these two companies is massive. 〰 Gold Gold is in a stagnation phase following a strong rally – a normal pattern, as revaluation and profit-taking often follow big moves. While it may seem like a good time to sell, I plan to hold a while longer. The outlook is still highly unpredictable. In a recession, money typically flows out of risky assets into gold. And if the Fed cuts rates too quickly, renewed inflation could, in my view, push gold above 10k$. 〰 Bond ETFs With some recent selling pressure in bonds, my Bond ETFs have also lost a bit of value. Still, this remains a long-term position in my portfolio. I believe that once political tensions ease and the Fed begins cutting rates, Bond ETFs will likely recover what’s been lost since March. And even if prices stay under pressure, the occasional dividend payouts make this a position worth holding. 〰 Stocks Since the portfolio is positioned defensively at the moment, total equity exposure is lower than usual – only 27% is directly invested in individual stocks, and 11% in stock ETFs. A significant share of these holdings is concentrated on miners and other producers within the commodities sector. Diversification now leans more on geographic spread. I’ve deliberately reduced exposure to North American equities – just over half of the portfolio’s stock positions are U.S. or Canadian, which is well below my typical allocation in more stable times. $SPX500 $NSDQ100

5 Mentioned

BTC

Bitcoin

CCJ

Cameco Corp

1816.HK

CGN Power Co Ltd

SPX500

NSDQ100

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