Wesley Nolte
Wesley Nolte
United Kingdom
๐—™๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ = ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐™‡๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ-๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฎ ๐™จ๐™๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ Stocks were expensive. Enough people became scared enough to trigger a sell-off and bring prices down. It might go further, it might not. I will cost-average into positions. ๐™‡๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ-๐™จ๐™ฉ๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฎ ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ฃ๐™œ Once in a while, the market ๐—ด๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ฎ ๐—ด๐—ถ๐—ณ๐˜. The kind of gift that feels terrible at the time of giving, but leaves you happy in the long run. That's where we're at right now. The market has run hot for a long time. It's been ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ธ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ฒ๐˜…๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—น ๐—ผ๐—ณ๐—ณ, and it got several at once. The next Fed chair pick could be very bad for liquidity (which is very bad for risk assets), the US job market is showing real weakness, and recent earnings revealed that at least some of big tech are still spending enormous amounts on AI with very little to show for it so far. Layer on top of that the narrative that "AI will kill SaaS, Law, and Real Estate businesses", and you have enough fear to trigger a proper sell-off. Here's where I ๐—ฝ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ต ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ. I've worked in technology for 30 years. Every aspect. From the most junior to the most senior. I work in SaaS, and I use AI every day, all day. It will change the world more than any technology that's come before it. But businesses will not disappear. Will some businesses lose revenue as clients need fewer seats and fewer consulting hours? Probably. But the flip side is that the companies that lean into AI could see margins expand as they do more with less. Either way, the transition creates real uncertainty, and the market hates uncertainty. ๐—”๐—œ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—น. It isn't the SaaS or Law or RE replacement, it's the thing those businesses use to become even better. ๐™Š๐™ช๐™ฉ๐™ก๐™ค๐™ค๐™  The market as a whole will eventually realise this sell-off is a massive knee-jerk reaction, and will pour back into these businesses. So when you have: $MSFT (Microsoft) the king of enterprise software, and oddly a leader in learning what not to do with AI โ†’ -28% $ACN (Accenture Plc) the king of enterprise software project deployments โ†’ -41% $DDOG (Datadog Inc) the market leader in software observability (app monitoring) with access to huge amounts of data, which y'know AI loves โ†’ -46% $CRM (Salesforce Inc) and $NOW (ServiceNow Inc) are both incredibly successful, sticky enterprise software platforms that will benefit enormously from AI capabilities โ†’ -48% and -56% respectively I start to think: it's time to go shopping. Of course, a drop in price isn't the only reason to buy a stock. But do yourself a favour and take a quick look at the financials for the above businesses. ๐™‹๐™ค๐™ง๐™ฉ๐™›๐™ค๐™ก๐™ž๐™ค ๐™˜๐™๐™–๐™ฃ๐™œ๐™š๐™จ Timing the bottom is a mug's game. You have a bit of a gauge using momentum indicators, but mass fear can override these. That's why I've been averaging into some of my favourite names: Accenture, MSFT, Datadog etc. I'm also keeping an eye on ServiceNow, Salesforce, $ADBE (Adobe Systems Inc) and some others.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
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