Thomas Roddy @ThomasRoddy: "📊 PORTFOLIO UPDATE Another rebalance..."

France

📊 PORTFOLIO UPDATE Another rebalance done. This one was more significant than the last and I want to be transparent about what happened, what I got wrong, and where the portfolio is now positioned. 🌍 The macro view The Gulf conflict thesis is still intact but the acute phase has shifted. The Strait of Hormuz situation has de-escalated enough that holding a pure tanker play no longer made sense, so FRO came out. The broader positioning around energy disruption, dollar weakness and international rotation remains in place. ✂️ What I sold and why Seven full exits this time. FDP was the most painful. It was one of my highest conviction new adds last rebalance and it has been a disaster since, down over 16% with no signs of recovery. I cut it. CAH was bought into post-earnings weakness in May and simply never recovered. Three weeks of watching it go nowhere was enough. O had drifted below my quality threshold several analysts alos downgrading. I had already trimmed it once and trimming again felt like the wrong approach to a fundamentally weakening position. Full exit. SBS and WF were both new positions from the last rebalance that did not work. SBS was down 17% in a month. WF down 8%. Both had fallen below the quant threshold. No point holding either as the momentum element is lost. FRO came out with a 13% gain overall. I held it as a momentum position through the last rebalance which was the right call at the time. With the Hormuz situation easing and the quant score deteriorating, the thesis had run its course. On top of the exits I trimmed UNFI by 50% and THG by a third. Both had grown to a size that was flagging on the eToro risk score, which is a useful check I take seriously when it fires. ✅ What I added Eight new positions, seven of which are fresh entries. FMX and ABEV give me two low-beta Latin American consumer staples names. FEMSA and Ambev. Both are large, liquid businesses with strong local pricing power and near-zero correlation to US equity moves. FMX has a beta of 0.19, ABEV 0.23. TTE is TotalEnergies, the French integrated energy major. Beta 0.06. Replaces the energy exposure from FRO with something far more diversified across LNG, renewables and upstream so less exciting but cleaner. PINE fills the Real Estate gap left by O exiting. Net-lease REIT scoring high on value. Similar in structure to what O was supposed to be but with better current fundamentals. DVA is DaVita, the dialysis services company. Healthcare exposure alongside JAZZ. Dialysis demand is completely non-cyclical. People do not stop needing treatment because of tariffs or macro uncertainty. ENIC fills the Utilities gap which has been absent from the portfolio for too long. Enel Chile, A valuation, beta 0.52. LYB is LyondellBasell, the chemicals company. Strong valuation which is the best grade in the entire screened universe today. It has been sitting on my watchlist and the entry looks reasonable. 📊 Where things stand The portfolio is 29 positions. ASAIY is no longer tradable on eToro so that slot sits as a small cash buffer for now. The framework is the same as the last rebalance. Equal Risk Contribution weighting, meaning each position is sized so it contributes equally to total portfolio risk rather than being driven by price or conviction alone. Portfolio volatility on the model comes out at 10.85% annualised which is the lowest it has been across all the rebalances this year. A few positions I am deliberately watching closely. PARR has had a strong run but momentum is fading. ZTO is oversold at RSI 26 and I have topped it up. MU stays at a small floor weight given its extraordinary run and high beta. The Gulf thesis has not gone away, it has just shifted. TTE and PBR both capture the energy angle without the binary risk of a tanker stock in a ceasefire environment. Will keep updating as things develop ! $SPX500 $NSDQ100 $OIL $VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US)

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.