Mentioned
Micron Technology, Inc.
MU
8.44 (0.98%)
869.11
870.44
IlMatematico
IlMatematico
Roberto Anzellotti
0%
Roberto Anzellotti
Roberto Anzellotti
Italy
2mo
$MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) : FOCUS ON FUTURE PROSPECTS When a stock is up +280% in our portfolio, the real question becomes: how much of the positive story is already priced in? $MU has been one of the most interesting positions we have had in our portfolio in recent years. The stock has had an incredible run and, precisely for this reason, we have already sold half of the position, locking in around +280%. πŸ€‘ The other half, instead, we continue to let it run (+380% at the moment). But today Micron is one of those cases where it is useful to look at the same company from three different points of view: what Buy analysts say, what Hold analysts say, and what Sell analysts say. 🟒 BUY analysts basically say this: Micron is no longer just a classic cyclical memory company. AI has turned HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) into a strategic component of digital infrastructure. Capacity is already almost fully committed, demand remains very strong, and expected earnings continue to rise. According to this view, the market may still be underestimating how much Micron can become an essential bottleneck for AI. Even after the big rally, if 2027 EPS were really close to the most optimistic estimates, the stock could still look reasonable. 🟑 HOLD analysts, instead, are more cautious. They do not deny the quality of the story. They do not deny the strength of AI. They do not deny the improvement in fundamentals. They simply say: be careful, everyone already knows this story now. The question is no longer whether Micron will generate extraordinary earnings, but for how long it will be able to sustain them. If new investments, greater production capacity, and competition from Samsung and SK Hynix were to normalize prices, part of the rerating could already be over. Translated: if you already own Micron, you can hold it. If you have to buy it today from zero, then the risk/reward ratio needs to be watched carefully. πŸ”΄ SELL analysts point to the options market. The options market is showing very defensive positioning, with strong demand for puts near earnings and very high implied volatility. On top of this, there are geopolitical, logistical, and competitive risks, including the possible arrival of SK Hynix on the US market through ADRs. The risk is that Micron is no longer seen as β€œthe only liquid gateway” to invest in AI memory, and that its valuation premium could therefore be reduced. My view? For now, our management has already been consistent with this uncertainty, and the feeling is that a large part of the run has probably already happened. We sold half of the position to turn part of the gain into real profit. At the same time, we are letting the other half run because great winners, when they keep running, should not be stopped too early. As for the remaining half, we will stay in the saddle for as long as technical analysis tells us to (plot twist: investors use technical analysis too!), and then we will close the position. This is the key point: you do not need to fall in love with a stock, but you also do not need to sell everything just because it has gone up a lot. Often, the best solution is to do both things: protect capital and leave the door open to upside. I’m @IlMatematico and through my algorithms I aim to extract value from the markets. Add me to your watchlist to stay updated on all my news and my movements! π·π‘–π‘ π‘π‘™π‘Žπ‘–π‘šπ‘’π‘Ÿ: π‘‘β„Žπ‘–π‘  π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘‘ 𝑖𝑠 π‘›π‘œπ‘‘ π‘“π‘–π‘›π‘Žπ‘›π‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘™ π‘Žπ‘‘π‘£π‘–π‘π‘’. 𝐼𝑑 𝑖𝑠 π‘œπ‘›π‘™π‘¦ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘ β„Žπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘›π‘” π‘œπ‘“ π‘šπ‘¦ π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘ π‘œπ‘›π‘Žπ‘™ π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘Žπ‘ π‘œπ‘›π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘œπ‘› π‘Ž π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› π‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Ÿπ‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘™π‘¦ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘›π‘‘ 𝑖𝑛 π‘šπ‘¦ π‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘“π‘œπ‘™π‘–π‘œ. πΈπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘¦ π‘–π‘›π‘£π‘’π‘ π‘‘π‘œπ‘Ÿ π‘šπ‘’π‘ π‘‘ π‘’π‘£π‘Žπ‘™π‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’ π‘œπ‘π‘—π‘’π‘π‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’π‘ , π‘Ÿπ‘–π‘ π‘˜, π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘‘π‘–π‘šπ‘’ β„Žπ‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘–π‘§π‘œπ‘› π‘Žπ‘π‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘‘π‘œ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’π‘–π‘Ÿ π‘œπ‘€π‘› π‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›.
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
2 Mentioned
Micron Technology, Inc.
MU
Micron Technology, Inc.
IlMatematico
IlMatematico
Roberto Anzellotti
2 replies
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