Wesley Nolte @Wesl3y: "𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝟮𝟯 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆..."

United Kingdom

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲 – 𝟮𝟯 𝗙𝗲𝗯𝗿𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 It's been a wild fortnight. The Supreme Court struck down Trump's emergency tariffs (a huge deal for global trade), but Trump responded almost immediately, slapping a new 10-15% global tariff using a different legal authority. So while the court clipped presidential trade powers, the trade war isn't over. CPI (backwards-looking inflation) came in cooler than expected at 2.4%, and the S&P closed Friday near 6910. BUT Q4 US GDP badly missed at just 1.4%, core PCE (the Fed's favourite measure of inflation) printed hot at 3.0%, and the Fed minutes revealed some members are actually discussing rate hikes. Add in Iran partially closing the Strait of Hormuz and oil surging past 70 USD, and you've got a market pulling in every direction at once. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙎𝙖𝙖𝙎𝙥𝙤𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙥𝙨𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙪𝙚𝙨 The software selloff I wrote about recently has only intensified. JPMorgan called it the largest non-recessionary drawdown in software in over 30 years. I made my case last time for why AI isn't an extinction event for these businesses. The panic still feels indiscriminate, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is. 𝙋𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙤 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 I've sold out of my low-volatility positions ($EWU $TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF )). These served their purpose as "cash with benefits", but it's time to redeploy that capital into beaten-down technology winners. * $RDDT (Reddit Inc) down ~39% YTD despite Q4 revenue growth of nearly 70% and strong guidance * $CRM (Salesforce Inc) the poster child for SaaSpocalypse fear, down ~26% YTD. But Agentforce ARR grew 330% and the business is still growing. Salesforce might be past its peak, but at this price, it's a steal * $ACN (Accenture Plc) added more on the pullback. Enterprises need help implementing AI, and that's exactly what Accenture does * Holding $MSFT (Microsoft) $DDOG (Datadog Inc) $MELI (MercadoLibre Inc) through the volatility as they're all high-quality leaders in their respective domains The thesis: when fear is this indiscriminate, quality businesses get mispriced. I'm comfortable with the extra volatility because the long-term earnings power is intact. 𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙨 𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙩 $NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) earnings this week will set the tone for the entire AI trade, and Iran tensions aren't going away. My plan is simple: keep accumulating quality tech on weakness, accept the short-term volatility, and stay patient. The SaaSpocalypse narrative will fade and by then we'll have cost-averaged into some of the world's best businesses.

Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.