$NIO (Nio Inc.-ADR) has twice as many cars on the road from 2024, but its swap stations are still doing ~30 swaps/day.
At first, that sounds strange.
Since 2024, NIO's user base has grown massively. Daily swaps went from roughly 60–80k to 100–110k+, while the network expanded from around 2,000 to 4,000 stations.
Yet average utilization has barely moved: still around 30 swaps per station per day.
And no, the expansion of the network doesn't fully explain it. Since 2024, the vehicle fleet has grown much faster than the number of swap stations.
- There were roughly 226 cars per swap station in August 2024.
- Today, even with 4,000+ stations, that figure is closer to ~300 cars per station.
So if owners were swapping at the same frequency as before, station utilization should actually be higher.
It isn't.
That strongly suggests the average car is simply swapping less often.
So are newer owners simply not interested in battery swapping?
The data suggests otherwise.
More than 70% of early ONVO L90 buyers chose BaaS, and for the L80 that number reportedly went above 90%.
So demand for the option to swap is clearly there. What has changed is how people use it.
Early NIO owners had unlimited free swaps. Later, NIO moved to monthly free-swap allowances. Since 2023, new buyers generally have to pay for their swaps.
And that changes behavior.
When swapping is free, there's little reason not to use it, especially when you have a monthly allowance you may feel you're "wasting" if you don't.
When you pay for each swap, the rational behavior becomes different: charge cheaply at home for everyday driving, and swap when the convenience is actually worth paying for, road trips, highways, time constraints, temporary battery upgrades, etc.
And we can see that behavior during holidays, when swap demand jumps dramatically.
So maybe the stable ~30 swaps/station/day isn't a sign of weak adoption at all.
It may simply reflect the transition from subsidized usage to more organic usage.
And if 70–90%+ of buyers on some new models are still choosing BaaS despite having to pay for swaps, that's arguably a much healthier signal than artificially high utilization driven by free swaps.
Same ~30 swaps/day. Very different quality of demand.... Show More
Not investment advice. The author may have financial interests in the mentioned instruments.
We use our own and third-party cookies on our websites to enhance your experience, analyze traffic, and for security and marketing. For more info, see our Cookie Policy or go to Manage Settings.
Privacy Preference Center
When you visit any website, it may store or retrieve information on your browser, mostly in the form of cookies. This information might be about you, your preferences or your device and is mostly used to make the site work as you expect it to. The information does not usually directly identify you, but it can give you a more personalized web experience. Because we respect your right to privacy, you can choose not to allow some types of cookies. Click on the different category headings to find out more and change our default settings. However, blocking some types of cookies may impact your experience of the site and the services we are able to offer.
More information
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable information.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
