Florin Brandas
Metals: Gold has been making headlines this week, thanks to its strong momentum and record highs. The precious metal is supported by central banks, notably China’s, which has been adding to its reserves as part of a diversification strategy. Another driver is the prospect of Fed rate cuts, which continue to boost gold prices, with the metal hitting a record high this week at USD 3,674 an ounce. Moving to industrial metals, the trajectory is the same - upward. Copper reached its highest price in more than five months, climbing to USD 10,068 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (cash price). This rebound is fueled mainly by expectations of U.S. rate cuts and concerns over supply disruptions, especially in Indonesia and Peru. Macroeconomics Macro: All is well in the best of all worlds. Stocks, which often decline in September, have gone the opposite way this year. Seasonality seems to matter little against the near-certainty of a rate cut as soon as next week. U.S. labor market data is showing weakness, pushing inflation fears into the background. Of its dual mandate - full employment and price stability - the Federal Reserve is now putting more weight on the former, keen to avoid being accused of always acting too late. Bond yields have taken note, with the 10-year falling, though it is testing an important threshold around 3.50%, which may prove hard to break. That hasn’t unsettled equity indices, which keep notching new records - at least across the Atlantic. Ahead of the Fed’s September 17 decision, investors prefer to see the glass half full. Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) continues last week’s momentum with a +3.5% gain since Monday, climbing above $115,000. The rally is fueled by massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have recorded more than $1.6 billion in net inflows since the start of the week. Total assets in spot Bitcoin ETFs now stand at $149 billion, representing 6.57% of all bitcoins in circulation, nearly 40% of which are held by BlackRock’s IBIT. On the other hand, investors are increasingly worried about companies that have built up large bitcoin reserves as part of their corporate strategy. Their share prices have slumped over the past month, with Strategy down 17% and Metaplanet down 33%. Other major cryptocurrencies are following bitcoin’s trend: ether (ETH) is up +4.77%, Solana (SOL) is surging +15.5%, and XRP (XRP) is gaining +5.7%. Waiting for a Fed meeting expected to deliver a rate cut is a bit like waiting for Santa Claus: spoiled investors can hardly contain their impatience. Everything points to monetary easing on Wednesday from the U.S. central bank. But the market always wants more—it's already wondering what comes next. That's the real issue behind the announcement. The Bank of England will also be in play, though a status quo is expected. On the corporate side, the calendar is light: a bit of FedEx, a touch of Exor, a pinch of Bolloré... and not much else. $NSDQ100 $SPX500 $GOLD $BTC $GER40
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