Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙨 April 2..."

Italy

𝘿𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙘𝙤𝙥𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙨 April 2 is fast approaching, along with the much-anticipated "Liberation Day" announced by Trump. This is a crucial moment for understanding the new U.S. administration's approach to trade policy and what future developments, especially in financial markets, might unfold. The market could either continue its downward trend or reverse course, anticipating a more positive outlook. This day may finally bring more clarity on tariff plans, with some signs of a possible softening of rhetoric from the White House. In recent weeks, the administration has shown signs of a less aggressive approach, with the introduction of potential exemptions for some of the United States' strategic partners. This shift could create a favorable environment for a rebound in risky assets, such as U.S. stocks, particularly in a context of a weaker dollar and falling interest rates. - Tariffs currently seem primarily directed at specific sectors like copper, aluminum, and steel, with visible effects already seen in the markets, especially in copper, where prices and trade flows have experienced significant fluctuations. Copper may have already priced in the worst-case scenario on tariffs, and if these turn out to be less severe than expected, there could be an opportunity for bearish positions, especially if Chinese demand weakens further. - Meanwhile, gold continues to attract significant capital flows in the United States, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and concerns about the dollar's role as the primary reserve currency. However, an increase in costs for U.S. businesses, as indicated by various surveys, could push real interest rates higher, creating an unfavorable environment for gold. - On the energy front, the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has shown signs of easing, with risks related to energy exports at historic lows. - Meanwhile, inflation data in the U.S., such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), shows inflation higher than expected, while consumption is showing signs of slowing down. - The Federal Reserve remains cautious, and the risk of stagflation grows, with economic growth slowing further amid persistent inflation. The arrival of new tariffs under the Trump administration, scheduled for April 2, could add additional pressure on prices, exacerbating costs for producers and consumers. However, the Fed seems to prefer a wait-and-see approach, without rushing to cut interest rates. - The real estate market shows mixed signals: new home sales are below expectations, but prices continue to rise. In Europe, confidence is increasing, with Germany leading the recovery. However, the new 25% tariffs on the automotive market could create significant problems for the recovery of European manufacturing, as well as the weakness in the U.S. and Chinese macroeconomies. - The cryptocurrency market is also under pressure. Despite the United States' decision to create a strategic reserve in cryptocurrencies, the market remains strongly correlated with equities. -Liquidity is increasing, but not decisively enough to push the market back into a risk-on phase and drive risky assets higher. In this phase, the risk-off sentiment persists, and capital is shifting toward more defensive sectors and bonds. Thank you for your support $GOLD (Gold (Non Expiry)) $COPPER.FUT (Copper (Expiring Future)) $ALUMINUM

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