Alberto Poli @pino428: "𝙁𝙚𝙙 𝘾𝙪𝙩𝙨 𝘼𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙇𝙖𝙮𝙨..."

Italy

𝙁𝙚𝙙 𝘾𝙪𝙩𝙨 𝘼𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙇𝙖𝙮𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙂𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙖 𝙋𝙖𝙪𝙨𝙚 The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting, lowering the Fed Funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%. A move widely expected by markets, yet far from straightforward to interpret. The key message is not the cut itself, but what comes with it: the Fed is clearly opening the door to a pause, potentially as early as January. 🏦 𝘼 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝘿𝙞𝙫𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙙 𝙁𝙚𝙙 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙖𝙩 𝘼𝙣𝙮 𝙏𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙔𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙨 The decision passed with three dissenting votes, highlighting a growing internal split. Stephen I. Miran, representing the more dovish camp, voted for a more aggressive 50 bps cut, aiming to push rates toward 2.00%–2.25% in 2026, followed by gradual normalization. Two more members , by contrast, voted to keep rates unchanged, citing persistent inflation pressures and risks to the Fed’s credibility. Powell remains at the center, attempting to hold together a board that no longer shares a single dominant narrative. ⏸️ 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙆𝙚𝙮 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙥𝙩: “𝙏𝙞𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙜” A new word appears in the official statement: timing. The FOMC states that, in assessing the extent and timing of further adjustments, it will evaluate incoming data, evolving outlooks, and the balance of risks. This is far from a neutral addition: it signals that rate cuts are no longer on autopilot. A pause now appears: • highly likely in January • potentially extended There is no urgency to ease further. 📊 𝙋𝙧𝙤𝙟𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨: 𝙎𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙙 𝙂𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝, 𝙁𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙞𝙡𝙚 𝘽𝙖𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 Macroeconomic projections were revised upward: • GDP: +2.3% in 2026, +2.0% in 2027 • PCE inflation: declining toward 2% by 2028 • Unemployment: 4.4% in 2026 Growth continues to be supported by: • still-expansionary fiscal policy • sustained investment in artificial intelligence However, Powell warned that demand is becoming increasingly concentrated. Consumption is driven by the wealthiest third of the population, an equilibrium that may prove unsustainable over the long term. Beneath the positive headline picture lies a structural weakness in the labor market, on both the demand and supply sides, which the Fed has been monitoring for months. ⚠️ 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙏𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙛𝙛𝙨, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝘿𝙪𝙖𝙡 𝙈𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙚 Inflation is slowing but remains above target. Risks are asymmetric: • inflation risks skewed to the upside (tariffs, geopolitics) • employment risks skewed to the downside A combination Powell explicitly described as “complicated.” The Fed wants to prevent one-off price shocks from turning into persistent inflation, but it cannot ignore the deterioration in labor market conditions. The result is a wait-and-see Fed. 💧 𝙇𝙞𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙮: 𝙏𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙮 𝙋𝙪𝙧𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙨, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙉𝙤𝙩 𝙌𝙀 The central bank will begin purchasing short-term Treasury securities to maintain ample bank reserves. Powell was explicit: 👉 this is not stimulus, 👉 this is not QE, 👉 it is technical liquidity management amid rising demand for reserves. 🟣 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝘾𝙧𝙮𝙥𝙩𝙤 𝙄𝙢𝙥𝙖𝙘𝙩 • equity markets marked by sector rotation (strength in healthcare, materials, and industrials; tech under pressure). This trend should be closely monitored to assess whether it can extend into early 2026 • weaker U.S. dollar • rising yields • crypto assets rebounding, but still under significant pressure 🔹 Ethereum is attempting to build a base above the lows but remains capped by resistance. 🔹 Bitcoin is consolidating: the market is not yet pricing in a decisive easing cycle. Without a clear increase in liquidity, the crypto market risks remaining stuck in a sideways range, with an overall trend that remains fragile. $ETH $BTC $AMD (Advanced Micro Devices Inc) $COPPER.FUT

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